RE:Some thingsConfidentDD wrote:
Recent comments here about buying/holding BUS at these levels are quite astute and timely.
Its an obesrvation or comment one must consider in these times of crypto, MJ and AMZN excitement when those sorts of companies are rather difficult to truly grasp, show volatilty, and are bereft of earnings proof and in some cases, any operations to speak of.
And then there is Grande West Transportation. It has 3 great things going for it: innovation, global manufacturing platform and soild management.
Below these three things are: proven sales, proven operations, proven partnerships, significant innovation lead time, new innovations, money in the bank, manufacturing financing, new auditors, growth ahead, insider ownership, and some very good catalysts ahead to confrim, renew and generate investor/analyst interest.
There are risks: competition, operations delivery, product performance and take-up, margins, client satisfaction, partner risk,
We remain holders and recent buyers again of BUS becuase its business is understandable and its record keeps improving. There are analysts (public and not yet so public) with targets way above here, and these portend a 2-3 bagger in the next 12-18 months. We too have done some market testing including riding busses in Orangeville, Oakville, Burlington, Simcoe, Vancouver and chatting up the driver. The reports are great and new and returning customers confirm widening acceptance of the engineering, pricing, confidence in management and prospects ahead.
The U.S. side may arguably seem to some as an unproven but awesome growth opportunity. Folks need to remember that ABG is the buyer agent and manufacturing partner for BUS in the US. Their order only months ago for another 100 buses confirmes their market sense and commitment. It would be really nice to see more annoucements about where the buses are going and manufacturing output.capacity for Buy America (public transit) units. But the sales to the private market are going to remain tougher to do DD on becuase of competitive reasons and the inroads BUS can make into very very large markets (long and cut-aways). Those buses can ship direct from China. We'd expect another 100 bus order soon and another later this year - to set up the backlogs and manufacturing for 2019 and 2020. It is not unfeasible for this to occur and would indeed set aside any worries that the sales growth story has been quiet. Remember, you dont go around thumping your chest with your sales and sales information when you're eating your competitors' market share, and innovating years ahead of them. That said, investors do required transparent timely Q and year end reporting, as well as some photo-op candy along the way to assure them that management is achieving, evolving from its 'mircro-cap' mind set and can growth BUS into a increasingly profitable mid-cap manufacturer of buses in NA.
These are the things that any one who owns BUS or is considering buying it here, ought to model and think through. We happen to thnk that the risk discounts are too high and that the market sentiment will shift toward a decent premium for growth and that this will happen over near months, not the full year ahead. All own opinions. GL DD
Beware those who speak with multiple forked tongues.