RE:RE:RE:RE:Stop Beating Yourself Up and BUYAgreed the uncertainty of Getinge's involvement is an overhang, but we should keep in mind this uncertainty has already caused the stock to go from $2.5 to $1.3 (50% haircut), as well as numerous recommendation downgrades from the sell-side analysts. So I think the worst has been discounted into today's stock price, which I believe is an over-reaction. From a business point of view, it makes a lot of sense for Getinge to stay in because:
- Hints from their most recent PR: low temp sterilization is a key strategic market for them, and their commitment to increase VP4 penetration first, then followed by low temperature sterilization in general. Finally, the PR quoted Carsten Blecker (their chief commercial officer)--who happens to be their interim US Head and the person who is likely to lead the contract renegotiation with TSO3
- Low temperature sterilization is the fastest growing market within sterilization, and Getinge only has an ethylene oxide (obsolete technology really) machine and Stericool (low-end hydrogen peroxide machine without much bells/whistles) in their product offerings. They need something that can differentiate themselves from its competitors and to offer to their higher end customers (i.e.: most hospitals in advanced countries like Western EU, US, Japan, etc.)
- Finally, RR mentioned that Getinge's request for assistance from TSO3 have increased since the interim deal was signed, as well as quarter-on-quarter. The potential deals Getinge now bringing involve higher level of discussion, as well as with bigger hospitals with bigger order size
To put things into perspective, I have crunched some numbers as due diligence.
Assumptions: all inline to TSO3 most recent slide deck
- VP4: $135k per machine, 30% gross margins
- Consumables: $25/use, 4 cycles/day and 250 days/yr
- Service contracts: $13.5k per year
- 10 year life of VP4, with zero consideration for any repeat purchase for replacement
- $25k of customer acquisition costs per VP4
Results: each VP4 is worth $190k in NPV (net present value, which takes into account time value of money) to TSO3
At today's stock price: we need 600 VP4s to justify today's valuation--this is 2% market share without any incremental demand from scopes
The market sizes are:
- Sterilizers market: 30,000+ machines in use today
- ERCPs demand: 2,500 in US (500k procedures annually in US, 2500 facilities doing it, 1 scope per load), 2,500 RoW
- Colonoscope demand: 40,000 in US (15 million procedures annually), 40,000 RoW
Scenario Analysis:
- Base case: 15% sterilizer market share, 75% ERCP penetration in US and 50% RoW, 10% colonoscope penetration and 5% RoW = $27.7 per share USD
- Bear case: 5% sterilizer market share, 33% US ERCP penetration and 20% RoW, zero colonoscopes = $5.75 USD/sh
- Blue Sky: 45% sterilizer market share, 90% US ERCP and 65% RoW, 45% US colonoscopes (basically this is the % of colonoscopes that penetrate any mucous membranes) and 25% RoW = $92 USD/sh
These numbers look crazy bullish, but I have checked my work/assumptions numerous times to make sure. Despite the near term uncertainties and trading nuances, I strongly feel this is something you buy today and leave for 2-3 years--this is what investing means (a la Buffet), rather than trading...
As always, any feedback / comments are welcome. Happy investing everyone...