Crius Energy Trust Tr Unit CRIUF

RESULTS

[Sukhi19]

Most of the points are positive. Expanded size of the company is showing results. Pay out ratio is healthy. Revenue has increased. Legal issues are being taken care of with cash reserves in place.

Outlook:  I quote,"Management is focused on delivering strong total Unitholder return by prioritizing investments in growth and the purchase of Units through the Proposed NCIB Program while remaining fully committed to our current level of distributions to Unitholders." Which means distr is safe (10.723% yld). They have to wait for approval for NCIB, it may take another two weeks or so before  they start buying back, it will protect the unit price from erosion. Since volume is usually low for this Crius- even small number of unit buy back will raise the unit price consideraly. Pay outratiowill drop further. CPX has been buying back and have SP has risen.

Negatives: Loss of 36,000 customers in Q4 but over all gain in 2017- It is one bad quarter vs three good. They are still grappling with solar operations and are "focused" on acheiving profitability by end of 2018. I believe them. They have a dedicated VP for SOLAR who has lot of experience in the field.

My take: Market will decide which way to swing. Market mood will be set up by discussions during conf call and subequent analyst recommendations and price targets. Even if the unit price depresses commencement of NCIB will protect the downside. I am happy with the results and the distr which will compensate overtime for any weakness in unit price. In my view shorts would have covered in last few days. Volume during recovery from $7.01 to $7.90 was very high and recovery was swift. NCIB will be staring the shorts in eyes and they will have to pay the fat distr as long as they maintain their short position. After hitting $7.01 lowers have been staying well above $7.01. Highers even touched $8.22 and $8.33. Last two days weakness was on low volume and basically people selling for safety before Q4 results. In addition to threat of NCIB, I feel the yld will attract enough buyers and the negative effects of the SA short article are waning. Still the bear raid organizers have acheived whatever they wanted to. Those who did not selll may be rewarded. I am reminded of deisman's caution about stop losses. Stop loss can cause lot of damage to unsuspecting investors in such a planned bear raid.

So far so good. Hopefully grit of last few days should pay off. I am sure the SA article would find mention in CEO's opening remarks.

I remember reading in some SA article that they bought more during this pull back.

Best of luck!