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TS03 Inc Trust Units TSTIF



GREY:TSTIF - Post by User

Comment by Drrwongon Apr 11, 2018 10:10am
250 Views
Post# 27865699

RE:RE:RE:New Low..........

RE:RE:RE:New Low..........This is the key question for any TSO3 investor:  will (not did) the VP4 sell?

Many of us are attracted to the company/stock because of all the theoretical advantages of VP4, as well as the inevitable push to sterilize flexible scopes.  But are these just theoretical selling points, and not backed up by real life experience so far?  

What we know so far:
-  Installations are ramping, albeit off a very low base.  We had 50 installs in the first 18mths, and 20 installs in 4Q17 alone
-  Repeat customers:  we heard existing customers are buying more VP4s after using their real life experience with the machine.  Example: 12 new orders from the 2 customers at the analyst day
-  We have also heard some examples (e.g.: from Darrow) that many hospitals don't even know the VP4 exists.  So there is a definite awareness problem out there.  But I haven't heard any cases where hospitals know or tried the VP4 and then think it does not add any value to them??

So, if you think this is mainly an awareness problem that will eventually be fixed by one of the following (or a combination):
-  A refocused Getinge organization
-  TSO3's own marketing 
-  Regulatory push to sterilize scopes that could give TSO3 a defacto monopoly in duo/colono
And there is no issues with the value prepositions that we all heard about, then this is a great opportunity to get into the stock.

But, if you think VP4 is a dud because hospitals just don't need/want it, then you should stay away.

Finally, I would like to point out that we know about the slow installs during the 3Q17 call, which occured on Nov 6.  The TSO3 stock was trading happily around $2.5-2.8 from Nov 6 to Jan 25.  So I don't see the slow install issue is what drove the stock down in the last two months.  The main development is the rework/uncertainty of the Getinge agreement, which resulted in a lack of visibility into this year's financials and cash burn. 
The stock will likely reverse its losses since Jan 25 if the two parties can come to a new agreement.  From what I heard and read so far, it seems Getinge wants a longer term agreement, while TSO3 wants to get paid on their marketing/service/support services that weren't contemplated in the original agreement, while maintaining its ability to market to hospitals that Getinge does not market to.  This seems workable to me (i.e.: no major conflicts on the two sides), but only time will tell.



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