RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:M-Fool... Favorable review? About time...I feel your pain Estavan, kind of... and short or not, everyone's just trying to make a buck...
My position is miniscule by comparison. I bought a few hundred shares of this turd as my very first stock purchase in July 2017 @ 13.65. I was pretty clueless and was going from the dividend aristocrat list, I believe. Since then, as a result of it falling of the edge of the world, I have done a good bit of research and I could never actually find any real facts to justify it falling so far so fast. Yes, they have shrinking ad revenue and shrinking TV in general is a slowly morphing subiness model, BUT, it's not like they are struggling to keep the doors open. They are in a fine position to turn things around and most likely will as all things streaming sort themselves out. The way the SP is acting, you'd think they are on the brink of chapter 11 or something. This one never added up for me, but bottom line is that this will be the first stock I actually lose money on someday. That ship has sailed... I'll drag the dividend and hold the bag until the end, hopefuly learning some more about how the market can work regardless of the actual value of a stock and so on.
GL>
CB
estevan8 wrote: No not a shorter, just a decimated shareholder!
Got in with 81,000 shares just before Christmas.
Trying to find a safe place to park for a while after couple years of high risk investing,
Leveraged 3 x ETFs and margin etc. I actually did very well, up 100% over past two years. Thanks Trump!
Then I unfortunately find one of the most off the mark analyst’s reviews of Corus who recommend CJR.B giving it a green light with medium risk $11.50, 10% yield and 12 month target of $13.50
I also confess I have sold over 90% of position and have not yet seen reason to get back in.
I am not blaming anyone but myself for the unfortunate decision I made on CJR.B
Reason I started posting here is I wanted to figure out what went so wrong and hopefully reassure myself a reversal was likely or at least possible.
I easily put in well over 100 hours researching, annual reports, conference calls and analyst reviews as far back as 2012. Including a detailed excel breakdown based on Corus quarter reports.
Lessons learned:
1/ Don’t follow the herd, do your own research first
2/ High yield stocks are a red flag
3/ Class B shares are another red flag
4/ Too much debt is deadly
5/ Debt to equity ratios are meaningless as they can be distorted by too much ‘Goodwill’
Two things about CJR.B that disturbing
1/ After crunching numbers from last 27 quarters there is a pattern of TV and Radio revenue decline
2/ The Corus grossly overpaid for the Shaw Media assets in the 2016 deal
Observations:
Because of the 2016 deal CJR.B shares were diluted by about 50% is now the company is heavily burdened with debt. I feel Shaw and Banks manipulated this deal in their favor leaving.
Shaw should have taken cash or shares but not both.
I have accused Shaw of knowingly overselling their Media assets.
And that this as was again seen in today’s report of increased revenues in their newly acquired Freedom Mobile and loses in TV subscribers.
Assuming revenues remain flat or follow pattern of decline as seen since 2012 the debt could easily be the company’s downfall, or should I say the shareholders downfall.
In 2019 Corus will NOT be able to do all three of the following:
1/ Pay debt interest
2/ Pay down debt
3/ Pay current dividend of $1.14
Who can rationally expect an annual increase in segment profit in 2018?
And that Corus will not put the banks ahead of shareholders dividend.
Regarding Shaw stake in Corus, I am sure they would love to see the stock at $11.50 again but made out great on 2016 deal anyway and are willing to take the share price hit.
Solution:
I have made a few predictions and suggestions as to how Corus could best manage the future.
That for the most part is a balance between reducing debts up to 50% and make very strong effort to pay down debt as much and fast as possible.
That done there could be a $0.56 dividend for at least another 5 years and with no careless spending, as seen in 2016, this could be carried even further.
With no debt there could be share buy backs which would maintain share price and dividend all while continuing revenue declines.
Although no one likes to agree I think a partial dividend cut starting 2019 to pay down debt would be the only thing that could save the CJR.B shareholders before shareholders are wiped out to back up the banks.
Summary:
No I am not shorting or trolling, but not sugar coating the reality of the situation either.
There is no indicating there will be a huger turnaround in the TV advertising industry.
Or is there any reason to expect some huger turnaround at Corus.
I am just a decimated shareholder trying to make sense of the past 3 months.
And maybe offer realistic solutions
Hoping Corus and Shaw might even take some notice.
So if anyone finds my posts out of line feel free to ignore!