redbull7 wrote: I've come to the conclusion that lately all of my posts are full of anger and frustration. As such, I have made the decision to walk away for a while (and won't be back until September). I will not check the board or any private messages (if you guys send me anything). I'm simply taking some time off.
I firmly believe my investment in CRE is solid. Yes, maybe we will go down to $0.70 but eventually, we will rebound. Last year in May we were hovering around $0.60 before we blasted off to $1.83 within 6 months. Whose to say the same thing can't happen now? So yeah everyone, enjoy the summer. Be safe. For those of you that sell and walk away, good luck with your future investments. For those of you that keep the faith, see you guys in a few months. Adios!!!
Discussion with JSL. After sending a couple of messages to CRE (using the "contact us" on their website), JSL called me last night to discuss. Here is what was covered (in my own words):
- I asked for an update to shareholders (he said some sort of update may be issued, but it's very hard to put anything into words right now because they can't get into any specific details in regards to the non-disclosure agreements)
- talked about SQM news and how they cannot possibly increase by 20k + tons. In comparison, Rockwood announced an increase of around the same back in 2013 and have yet to increase it as they said they would. So SQM very likely won't be able to either.
- talked about Nemaska. They don't want to follow same financing pattern/plan since it's very confusing with bonds, etc. etc. They want something much simpler, with much less dillution
- mentioned that it took Nemaska 2 years after publishing the feasibility study to get financed. Obviously CRE doesn't want to take that long, but you cannot get financing in only a couple of months.
- the non-disclosure agreements are going well. Cannot comment further, but Cannacord is actually very helpful and are doing a lot of work. They are consistently talking to Cannacord each day (he said 20 times a day but I think that's a figure of speech).
- financing/offtake is still on track and won't delay construction or production start date. If obtained by Q1-2019 (they will still commission by Q4-2020)....at least that's the way I understand it.
- they don't want to sign offtake/financing just for the sake of it. They want the best deal for everybody involved (which obviously includes them as well as us)
- he is equally frustrated about the share price as us. Remember, management owns probably around 16,000,000 shares (being 10% of the outstanding float, as per the comments made at the AGM). Let's just say that's a LOT more shares than I hold. So if they hold this much and are not selling, why should I??
- I asked if they are considering buying shares to instil confidence in shareholders or if they are in a black-out period. He said he cannot answer that (I cannot blame him :)
- he said by the end of this year, the lithium shortage will start to be felt. So more and more companies will scramble to find/secure resources.
- they are not issuing any more shares, especially at these prices.
- there will be some upcoming news regarding Phase 2. He cannot comment more on this right now.
- also mentioned SQM showed lithium to be at $16k tonne and it is expected to increase once again this upcoming fall. So prices are going up and all the analyst (and other people....ummmm Morgan F"ing" Stanley are getting it all wrong with their comments). There is a disconnect.
- Dr. Haber is working very hard and knows this market. He really knows his stuff. JSL mentioned Dr. Haber's name a couple of times througout our conversation.
I think that covers it. Overall, he is still very positive on the project and working very hard. But everything takes time. The lithium market will recover, that's a certainty. He did talk about Nemaska that even though they have around 900M shares outstanding, the project still has lots of value since their revenues will be over $400M a year, less taxes and expenses, so their project is still very valuable. Same with CRE, even though revenues will be I think around $200M less expenses and taxes, I thought he said EBITDA was around $170M (I would have to check the feasibility study). Regardless, what I'm getting at is that there is a LOT of value in both projects. Think about it this way. First year of full operations, they will make more earnings than their total market cap today (which is $149M). So how in the heck will they be trading at $0.95 then???
My gut feeling is that they are very close to finalizing some sort of finance/offtake. I think that something will be announced in the summer time. At least the first phase of financing (which in my opinion will be a car manufacturer that puts in $50-100M into CRE), then CRE will get more probably in December 2018. Again, it's anyones guess but this is my feeling and I'm sticking to it. I would like to be proved wrong. I wish they signed an offtake this coming Monday, for $300M for 35%. I would retire...