Eagle Energy Inc T.EGL.UN

RE:RE:N. Texas well decline rate...

[Kherson]

Kherson wrote:

Kherson wrote: First of all, it is great to see the paid pumpers back. That in itself speaks volumes. Now for the numbers:
November 18th production test rate - 527 barrels per day
December 18th production test rate - 450 barrels per day
Decline rate at first glance is 14.6% over one month!
But wait, Wiggles stated in the November 28th NR that the actual oil production was 402 barrels per day and it was continually increasing. But now in the December 19th news release, the actual oil production is down to 350 barrels a day! What happened to Wiggles statement that the oil production was continually increasing?
Finally, lets not forget that Wiggles stated that the well would be shut-in for only 7 days! In reality it took over 10 days to complete the permanent production facilities, therefore, the decline rate of 14.6% is actually over a 20 day period!
The real decline rate that Wiggles is not reporting to the market is around 20% per month, when you factor in a full 30 days of production!
Houston, EGL shareholders have a problem!
Kherson
 

I ran the new numbers from the latest NR and came up with a monthly decline rate on that new well in N. Texas of 13%. It now looks like Eagle is gonna wait until they get their 90 day production numbers in March before they make a decision on moving forward on drilling anymore wells.With the information provided, it also looks like the actual oil production was down to 300 bbl/d after one month!
So, come the middle of March, will the actual oil production be down to 250 bbl/d? Hopefully the Presentation to be released at the end of March answers that question.
Kherson

Posted February 12, 2018
Kherson