RE:RE:RE:Re It was time to sell<Cognition777 said: the bottom for copper is around the $2.25USD range on the long term charts since 2002... BUT, the tragetory/pattern shows a swift fall followed by an even swifter escalation to at least $3.20>
I respect the charts - one must with all the trend-following hedgies out there - but I don't see it going to $2.25 because of trading dynamics. I think we are in a short-term $2.55-2.70 range before the next leg up.
Short-term, the price is moved by hedge funds, roughly 5-7 cents for each 10K contracts. To move it to $2.25 would require dumping another 50K contracts. I don't think the exchanges will let it happen. Copper contract is - by law - a claim on physical copper. Exchanges don't care when hedgies go heavily long because hedgies never ask for physical delivery. But when hedgies go short and producers and consumers take the other side and go long, that's entirely different. Hedge funds are already net short 340KT or 75% of the copper in combined LME and Comex warehouses. Another 50K contracts will push it to 200%. An EV manufacturer buying 2019 contracts may well say: "I want physical delivery" - which can't be met because there is not enough physical copper. The exchanges won't jeopardize the integrity of their (very lucrative) system and they have a very simple way of doing this: increase the short margin requirement. That would discourage shorting in a hurry.
Short positiong has already slowed down quite a bit, only 6K contracts in the past month (after > 100K contracts swing the month before). They might push it a bit more but not much. That's why I think we are in a trading range already. All JMHO.