Different perspective from the Deutsche BankLink Certainly different from the mainstream narrative:
"If a trade deal cannot be reached (their baseline case), China will likely keep monetary policy loose, raise the fiscal deficit to boost infrastructure investment, and let the yuan depreciate to 7.4 in 2019 (it was trading around 6.83 mid-morning in Hong Kong). This scenario is positive for commodities.
If a trade deal is reached, China will likely bring the currency back to around 6.5 to the U.S. dollar, buy more U.S. agricultural and energy goods, open the service sector to foreign firms, and normalize monetary and fiscal policies to a neutral stance. This is a scenario positive for equities and negative for commodities as China wouldn’t need to boost infrastructure investment as much."