RE:Questions for Zorgstockzorg... in your post from February 20, 2018, you have been very accurate with your hope for 1.8 mio ounces. Based on that, you calculated a valuation CDN$ 0.93 for TUO. If you could give a comment on your previous post and content, it would be highly appreciated, thank you...
To start, my baseline valuation for TUO right now, assuming no gold anywhere and no new options for this year is $.23 per share. This includes only the existing assets - cash, incoming options payments and stock due (at current market value), claims as they stand on the balance sheet (which is declining every year as option payments come in, so it's a very low number), bonds, and property.
There is also about $4 million in tax loss carryforwards (TLC) which would be useful to a profitable company acquiring TUO, so another $.10 there, but only in a takeover situation.
Treaty Creek value for the KSM project - I am assuming 1% of total project cost for Treaty Creek, or 1% of $5 Billion, or $50 million, of which 20% ($10 million) would be for TUO - $.25 per share.
I am valuing every 1 million oz. found at Treaty Creek as follows:
$40 million for value of gold in the ground based on Cipher Research data showing $40 per oz. for projects that are in development. This is based on over 200 actual transactions over more than 20 years. [If you don't consider Treaty Creek to be in development, use $31 per oz. which is the Cipher Research median number for Canadian gold in the ground that is not under development]. So for every 1 million ounces found, $8 million (20%) would be for TUO, or $.20 per share USD ($.25 per share CDN$).
The TUO NSR is a bit fuzzy since I don't know where they have 2%, where they have 1%, etc. so I use 1% for the NSR number and $1250/oz. as the price of gold. So I get $.40 per share CDN$ for every million oz. less transportation and refining costs. To be conservative I use net $.32/share.
If the price of gold changes I add/subtract 1.5% to the valuation for every 1% that gold increases/decreases. This reflects the fact that mining stock prices (especially juniors) move more than the price of gold.
I am assuming that TUO will not be paying anything for the project after a production decision has been made - I think they will do a transaction to get out of the project and convert it to cash, possibly retaining the NSR. The TUO business model is project generation, not mining.
Based on all of this, my SWAG valuation for TUO is $.48/share plus T/C gold at $.25/share per million oz. in the ground. Since I am hoping for 1.8 million oz. of resource this year, I'm at about $.93/share CDN$. I am leaving NSR and TLC out of this valuation until I see what deals are cut as KSM ramps up. If gold doubles, I assume TUO will triple in value, so I guess my "blowout" number assuming $2500/oz. gold would be about $2.80/share if everything goes perfectly.
Read more at https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.tuo/teuton-resources-corp?postid=27588922#1StWQdUOF6muzkHw.99