GREY:VITFF - Post by User
Comment by
MVargason Sep 21, 2018 3:54pm
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Post# 28667296
RE:Today' presentation at Precious Metals Summit
RE:Today' presentation at Precious Metals SummitAs per the presentation the NPV of Eagle at $1200 gold is $449 million. The current market cap (at $0.325) is $260 million. In a year from now when/if the company executes its current plan to production on schedule and budget, and has its first gold pour and if nothing else changes, then one should expect a re-rating such that the market cap would be equivalent to the NPV and a share price of $0.56.
In the meantime should the POG increase to $1400, then the NPV would increase to $683 million, equivalent to a share price of $0.85.
However the big upside will come from increasing reserves and mine life or annual production or a combination of both. Currently the NPV is based on mining approximately 1.9 million ounces over the life of mine from reserves of 2.3 million ouces per the Feasibility Study. However the company has reported 4 million ounces of Measured and Indicated Resources and it is reasonable to assume that most of these ounces will eventually be converted to Reserves and mined.
The current published resources do not include the results of last year's drilling program nor this year's nor future years. So there is reason to be optimistic that the M&I Resources and reserves will increase further.
John is on the record as saying that he believes that Eagle will produce 200k oz/yr for 20 or 30 years. This is not wild optimism, but an educated forecast based on existing resources and a reasonable expectation for more additions.
Consider that a doubling of Reserves will much more than double the NPV since the additional infrastructure costs will be minimal. No more financing (or dilution) would be required.
So a doubling of reserves would much more than double the NPV and the expected share price.
The gold price is a wild card, but even at today's $1,200, a doubling of reserves would be worth a share price well in excess of $1.00, whereas at $1,400 gold, it should be closer to $2.00.
John has previously stated that the company expects to publish updated resource and reserve numbers by the end of this year. I am not counting on that, depending on what they find this year, as they may need more time to incorporate this year's results. But certainly we will have updated numbers before production starts in September next year.
Yet shareholders are still willing to part with their shares at current prices.