Painted Pony Pete Ltd PDPYF

TDW gas line

[MrBigger]

In the following charts, we summarize the key data points for the North American natural gas supply and demand dynamics. In this week's edition, we highlight the following: 1. This week, we observed an injection of 98 bcf, which was slightly ahead of consensus and the five-year average, both of which were of 87 bcf (Exhibit 2). Front month Henry Hub pricing abruptly fell 3% on announcement. U.S. storage now sits 641 bcf lower year-over-year, and 596 bcf below the five-year average. 2. Preliminary expectations for next week are for a 70-75 bcf injection, which would be below the five-year average of 91 bcf. 3. Early Tuesday, we officially saw confirmation of what had been speculated upon last week, with LNG Canada announcing that its joint venture participants - Shell (40%), PETRONAS (25%), PetroChina (15%), Mitsubishi (15%), and Korea Gas Corp. (5%) - have made a final investment decision (FID) to build the LNG Canada export facility in Kitimat, BC. The project has substantial lead-time, with an inservice date likely at least five years out, but has the potential to add 1.8 bcf/d of demand (which could double if Phase 2 is approved). This is very material given current Western Canadian production of ~16 bcf/d.