RE:RE:Debenture holders will get stock either wayppp wrote: I guess now it is time to figure out what the company is worth dead or alive. IMO the debs are better off to take the deal. I have gone through this a few times before in my 30 years of investing.
first off lawyers cost lots of money. Next there are countless little creditors that get paid before you.
Take what is offered and carry on.
Good point ppp: layers are expensive, and so are Reserves Auditors, Receivership Managment companies, and Investment Bankers. These are all people that salivate overe the "guaranteed fees" they can get, in a Court ordered wind-up of a company.
I don't think Debenture Holders are leaving too much on the table, if they take this deal. The implied value is $42.9 million to Debenture Holders, and $3.1 million, to shareholders. Let's assume that Debenture Holders could hold out for a slightly higher amount, say 97% of the reorganized company, similar to how Strategic Oil and Gas Debenture Holders, negotiated. This incremental value would be $1.7 million, which isn't a huge amount. There would be a bunch of legal and receivership fees, required to get this extra $1.7 million, which would eat into the remainder.
Thus it seems like it would be alot of work, to try and gain a very small amount of incremental value. And we have to consider while that is the stated deal value, the stock is now trading under that 10 cent valuation, because the market doesn't think the Company is worth that much.
The current value of the Company, is not worth much, due to the low oil price. These aren't high quality assets. And we also have to include the debt from the emergency loan, to develop the US assets. The only way to get value, is to keep the Company intact: there will be no asset sales, at the current low oil prices.
A Company could enter receivership, and if the prices aren't good, like they are now, there would be a "no-bid" situation. Of course it would be nice to see oil prices recover over 2019, and then get the full face value of the Debentures, but right now, that is impossible. So this leads some benefits to the deal, with a small amount of money being left on the table.
There still could be a "white knight", prepared to do a deal, but they could also try and shaft the Debenture Holders, like Long Run Exploration did, or even worse, just try to rip-off all value, like Twin Butte tried to do. So throwing the shareholders some scraps, with a little bit left on the table, might not be that bad of a deal.