RE:RE:Size of Issuewestcoast1000 wrote: does the share offering imply they will be extending the wind down date of this closed ended fund? I only understood the wind down risk a few months ago while being significantly underwater on the share price.
The fund went through the 2008 crisis and has never missed a distribution. It is the largest split share on the market in terms of market cap. They have extended weaker funds, so I expect they will extend this one as well. There doesn't appear to be any correlation between extending the fund and performance.
westcoast1000 wrote: Mornngstar indicates a fair price for the stock today is about 10.58 (which I expect ignores any risk the fund will close).
Since the last reported NAV is $6.88, I would be interested to hear how they determine what premium to pay is fair. Some people are reluctant to pay a large premium as it reduces yield and leaves one open to capital losses should the premium drop. Others are oblivious as they focus on the yield. With a NAV of $6.88 and a price of $10.58 that is quite a hefty premium of 53%, and they say that is fair price? In the last year, DFN has been trading at an average 21.75% premium.
T 12 Months | Low | High | Range | Average |
Premium | 18.68% | 27.29% | 8.61% | 23.51% |
If the current NAV is around $7.15 averages suggest a fair price would be no higher than $8.75 so it is priced right now on the low side of that mark. Buying with lower premium gives one a better cushion in markets like we currently have and may at times give one capital gains rather than losses.
Buying at a premium in a bull market can work, until it doesn't. Those who don't want to get caught like that have to be patient and wait for the right time - either a market dip or an Overnight Offering. Even then, one can still get caught as it is not easy to buy at the bottom unless you have enough capital to keep dollar cost averging until it turns around.
Fortunately for holders of DFN, the NAV wasn't hit as hard as FFN and FTN and the distribution was not threatened in the 2018 market dip.
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For a comparison of Split Share Funds, see this blog: