RE:RE:HOT.UN reminds me of another stockborne2run wrote: hroark7, I have also owned Northview for several years. In your comparison, you missed the glaring difference - Northview always maintained a LOW payout ratio and that ratio declined over time.
HOT.un is the inverse.
Greetings fellow NVU shareholder. As you probably know, there's two ways to calculate the payout ratio, using FFO and using AFFO. While Northview was low payout using FFO, it was high using AFFO (even now it's in the mid-90's). I believe this is the case for HOT.UN as well, to compare apples to apples.
What we're really talking about in terms of risks of HOT are 2 things here:
1. Can HOT sustain it's dividends
2. Can HOT execute on it's plan as stated
If HOT can do #2, it will do #1.
In terms of sustainability of dividend, there are a number of stocks I've owned such as NVU, NWH and REI that at some point or another, either went close or even above 100% payout ratio, yet because of strong execution, it sustained and when the business recovered as the execution went according to plan, the stock rose. That would be the best case scenerio.
Worst case scenerio is a SOT.UN or D.UN or CUF.UN scenerio where the dividend gets cut and some properties get sold to unlock value, and the stock mid to long term goes up because of it.
If that's the worst case scenerio, I'd say HOT is looking pretty good.