RE:RE:Big picture 232 is irrelevant Cheers LongRoad.. imo everyone interested in Uranium should read your post! You sound a bit more sane than I know I do.. I just get tired of reading rubbish on these boards and then tend to get a bit steamed up when I write about it.. but yes what you say here tells the story very well.
Of course the current bull will play out very differently from the last one.. hopefully it will be less violent this time around but with the way the markets behave these days I would not be in the least surprised to see a very similar thing to the Bitcoin mania.. simply because that is the way these things play out in these crazy casino style markets these days.. fear and greed rule the day.. irrational exuberance creates frenzy and what happens as a result has nothing to do with logic or fundamentals.
A great example of this is there was a BAKING company in 1980 called Gold Bond.. it went parabolic along with all the Gold miners in the 1980 gold frenzy! lol.. that is how much people care about facts and fundamentals in a stock mania! The bakery caught on simply because it had the word gold in its name!
I suspect that is how this U bull will play out even in spite of the fact that Cameco are doing their best to make it an orderly climb it will, at some point, catch the attention of the bitcoin / marjuana crowd and there will be no stopping it.. it is a TINY market and to use Rick Rule' description it will be like trying to force Niagra Falls through a garden hosepipe. lol
Good luck guys!
LongRoad wrote: touareg thanks for explaining what it was like in the last cycle and how that relates to what is going on today.
I think way too many investors are not really that, but speculators looking for action one way or another. Their views are determined by the here and now, not what may happen in the future and why.
When I look out even as far as 2021, I cannot see where 232 will be the deciding factor on the future price of uranium. We are headed into a massive uranium bull market whatever happens.
The world has discovered that nuclear is vital to stable electricity generation and is key to reducing pollution. These trends are not reversing any time soon. Yet where is the production to feed them the raw material?
EFR, and URG for that matter, will benefit in the short run because if Trump does nothing to support a US industry and workers against Russia, Kazakhstan, and China, and ensure security of supply for the US, the demagogues who support him will politically speaking, lynch him...but he is not that free trade loving person, and industries that argue that we should rely on foreigners have yet to win his endorsement.
So yes, by mid-July we will know the outcome of 232. It will favor US producers and it will be rocket fuel to the domestic stocks, but it will also take out the uncertainty that has prevented one third of buyers from contracting and buying. The next 12 to 15 months thereafter could then see U3O8 prices skyrocket for the entire market as the realization that security of supply is a problem as there are not enough producing mines to meet demand.
If you are focused on today's market, you should have sold your shares before Friday. On the other hand, if you are investing for a positive outcome, Friday was a great opportunity to add to your position, or just one more volatile day on your way up.