RE:RE:Maduro Will Run Out of Funds by Fourth Quarter of 2019 The transition is already happening though. The National Assembly is preparing for elections and Guaido has overwhelming popular support. The article talks of civil war... That is complete nonsense! There is no way in hell the Maduro regime can get the military to fight for him in a situation like that, and also, the international community would pounce on the opportunity and get rid of him in a second if he tried.
The other scenario mentioned here, Maduro “clinging to power” through meager illicit trade in oil, is also very unlikely. It is not in Maduro’s or his criminal supporters interest to “scrape by” by remaining in power. They will realize that their time of siphoning money out of the country is running out and try to find opportunities elsewhere. It is all about money for them, they’ve stopped “being in power”, as in actually leading the country, since a long time ago.
IMO, the most likely scenario, not even mentioned here, is that Maduro will do what South American dictators mostly do in this situation: Rob the country as much as he can and then leave. Over time, he’ll lose more and more of his military support (first slowly, then very quickly) and finally, most likely without any fight whatsoever, he will take off. He will not want to be around once his military support falls below the tipping point, because at that time his presence in Venezuela will be very dangerous.