Nuvo Pharmaceuticals Inc NRIFF

Market Cap hit 6.6 Million today

[ValueCap]

The company is either going bankrupt or it's a screaming buy? They have debt payment obligations of 2.5 million USD/ quarter, or 3.1 million CAD. If generic competitor enters market, soonest you might see an impact of some kind is Q3, where vimovo payment goes down to 10% of sales if generic enters the market at risk. Competitor might see a 60-70% drop in 6 months and 95% drop in a year. So Q3 you might see see half the 1.875 mil USD off/2.5 million CAD. Q4 2019 you might see a low royalty payment, and then fade out from there to 0, or full loss of 2.5 million CAD royalty. This quarter Ebitda was 5.2 million in out of season quarter for Blexten, with both it and Cambia still growing. Resultz license agreement and local manufacturing possibly by year end. Suvvexx next year, Blexten pediatric next year and later ophthalmic filings. And sure, maybe some global pennsaid growth too. Bloom Burton revised their ebitda estimate to a NO royalty scenario from Q3 on, which while more aggressive than mine above, still gives an estimated ebitda of 18.7 million on. That's more than enough to cover the 10 million USD debt payment. Vimovo US royalty was really only expected for another 18 months to 2 years anyway. I certainly don't see the company defaulting on debt payments unless something drastic were to happen with another one of their products. Someone please point out if I'm wrong?