if equilibrium expected only 2021-2022 why not to sell?So far 2021-2022 is mainstream concensus for Li demand/supply balance.
Logically, to sell now, invest in safer or dividends paying stock and come back in 2022
There are two problems: Li market sentiments can swing nearly overnight on expectations like it happened twice, already, up and then, down.
Mostly because of potential surge of demand or its strong anticipation. Not a secret that anticipation on market often factors more of s/p movement than actual event.
How it can happen on Li market?
Here is the example:
https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/lithium-market
One of key phrases: "Norway accounted for almost one-third of the total (European EV) market share in 2018"...and conclusion "...(EV sales) expected to see a sharp surge in the coming years" Reference: population of Norway 5.4M, European Union 512M. How sharp can be the surge?
Basically, one unexpectedly good quarter of EV sales or increase of energy storage orders, will lead to strong upward correction of demand. Can happened in 2022, or we are in the middle of this quarter right now, need very well working cristal ball to predict.
Second point not to sell is not to sell NLC particularly.
It does have extra, junior related risk, but it has super competitive deposit, even considering pessemistic Li prices and demand.
This is true for any mining segments or industires. The questions are mining permits and financing, if or when (depending of you optimism level) these are obtained, the Li price will affect profitability levle from good to great, not bankrupt or alive.
Combination of negative factors: Li industry not picking up and financing is not obtained will surely make make us lose; mid factors likely to quadruple capitalisation and double s/p in mid term (50% dillution, LAC as an example); combination of mostly positive factors can bring the rise of s/p with ceiling difficult to predict.
Present assessement of risk and return, focused mostly on risk. NLC's payback time is 18 month, I wonder how many companies can match that?