"This time around, there is no flood of new mine supply.....little snippet from the excellent Globe and mail article
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Further up the supply chain, however, copper supply is in trouble again. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecast in May that global mine production would be flat this year. It will struggle to meet even that low-ball assessment.
World mine production actually fell by 1 per cent in the first four months of 2019, according to the ICSG.
Smelters are having to accept extremely low charges for converting mined concentrate into refined metal.
The 10-member China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) lowered its minimum treatment charges to US$55 a tonne and 5.5 cents a pound for third-quarter deliveries.
That translates into an acute margin squeeze for higher-cost smelters with CSPT members starting to talk about potential production cuts.
During past periods of low copper prices, too much production was as much the problem as demand.
This time around, there is no flood of new mine supply. There’s not even a trickle."