Pemex & AMLO Fudging production numbers https://expansion.mx/empresas/2019/08/28/pemex-mezcla-su-crudo-con-el-de-los-contratos-privados-para-alzar-sus-cifras
According to Google translate, this article states:
Pemex ‘mixes’ its crude with that of private contracts to boost its figures
The national oil company counts more production in its reports than the one registered with the energy regulator.
Pemex oil production figures account for more barrels than those reported to the National Hydrocarbons Commission (CNH), which prevents knowing exactly how much of this extraction is due to its tasks and how much comes from the blocks assigned by oil rounds and their associations or farm outs.
The national oil company produced 1,671,000 barrels per day on average during July this year, a figure identical to that seen in June, according to figures published in its indicators last Friday. But these figures do not correspond to what was reported to the sector regulator.
“The reality is that Pemex did not produce 1,671,000 barrels per day in July and June of this year. As shown in the table, its production was around 1,650,000 million barrels per day for both months, ”said Fausto lvarez, head of the Technical Administration Unit of Assignments and Contracts of the CNH, through its social networks.
The calculations presented show that Pemex produced, through its allocations, 1,589,637 barrels per day in July, a small drop of 0.21% compared to 1,592,906 barrels per day in June. But the company's data improves in part thanks to an increase in its contract without partners in Ek-Balam.
The analysis shows that the disparity is such that the reported figure of Pemex production for June is even greater than the national production, that is, added to its own with those of private, according to CNH figures.
The data of the company that runs Octavio Romero Oropeza should also indicate that of the contracts with partners, only a proportional part corresponds to them, says lvarez.
The government has emphasized that the company's figures have shown an improvement in recent months, stabilizing the decline in production so far this year.
But Pemex's own figures presented in its report to the second quarter of the year show that from January to June Pemex production through allocations is around 1.66 million barrels per day average, a fall of 11% compared to what was seen in the same period of 2018.
The figures of its monthly statistic, however, put the extraction of Pemex at an average of 1.67 million barrels.
Pemex has the goal of producing 1.7 million barrels average daily for this year, according to data from its Business Plan; which implies a fall compared to 1.82 million in 2018.
End of Article
From my research,
Pemex oil production, from its own fields and under its own 100 per cent control is still dropping rapidly, at the rate of about 20,000 BOPD per month or 240,000 barrels per year.
By the end of the year, at this rate of decrease, Pemex production will be about 1,470,00 BOPD. Th annual average production will be higher than that and will likely come out at about 1,580,000 BOPD.
The adding of the Pemex portion of joint ventures to the totals makes sense as it is still Pemex oil, but it really fudges the real numbers of what Pemex and AMLO are telling the world. In reality, Pemex production, if it has stabilized ( Personally I don’t see the numbers to say it has) , has stabilized because of the private sector production.
This number of 1,580,000 or if it is 1 677,000 BOPD is a long ways, from the Finance Minister’s budget forecast of budget blueprint estimates Pemex's year-end 2020 oil output at 1.95 million barrels per day. It is 370,000 BOPD lower than projected for its budget.
There is no way Pemex can get production to that level. All of the new fields, all 20 of them when in full production, which won’t happen for at least another two years, will add about 290,000 BOPD, which might be enough to offset the current decline rate.
Pemex will not have these 20 new fields in full production by the end of 2020 as Pemex is still contracting and searching for jack up rigs to do the drilling. It has 3 of the 16 required rigs on site and two more have been licensed but are no where near the Gulf. It still needs to find 11 more rigs and get them on site.
Pemex and AMLO are really fudging the numbers and expecting everyone to believe them.