Share Appreciation - pennies or dollars I have to disagree about the Mackie Report being the catalyst for the share price rise.
A DCF model is something a corporation buying out another might use to value a start-up business. No or minimal cash flow, lots of assumptions and significant discounting of future revenues to reflect risk.
in the case of Theralase if the share price ended up at $0.80 a year from now it would be a fluke. The reality is that either the phase 2 trial leads to regulatory approval or it doesn't. Consequently the outcome is binary and the DCF model will significantly undervalue the company if they do get regulatory approval (or overvalue it if they don't).
So while I personally believe in the science and the long term value of the stock it might be a very long time before I get dollars and not cents.
The reality is the share price is set by supply and demand. The company issued a significant number of shares to complete the financing and a lot of the shares were purchased by existing shareholders; many it would seem sold shares to buy into the new offering. We need fresh blood to spur demand. Too many retail shareholders with money stay away from penny stocks like the plague. No decent stock blocker managing money will get their clients into risky or unproven companies like Theralase - they are like a bank taking a sliver of the action and don't need to see their clients losing on low cap risky stocks.
There are structural reasons why institutions are restricted from buying into Theralase - the exchange, the low share price, the low market cap and probably the most significant reason is that there is still too much risk in the science. Completing enough of the phase 2 trial successfully could be the start of real buying interest in the company but short of some attempted partnering deal or buyout we might need to see regulatory approval to get the dollars.
Just like a mining company, reserves trade at 0.10 on the dollar until the mine is approved, financing and government approvals are in place and construction is completed. The Mackie Report suggests that regulatory approval will be in 2023 - a long wait to get the big bucks. I believe the company is looking at fast approval sooner so 2-4 years out.
it is crucial to get the share price over $3 per share, get a successful phase 2 done to prove the science, start on new trials to prove the versatility of the treatment and to get onto the TSX exchange as soon as possible. Longer term NASDQ will open the money floodgates.
Maybe there are enough risk takers out there that will pile into the stock if the mainstream press starts covering the company and the bladder cancer results. That will get us into the dollar plus range sooner but hardly sustainable. Nothing beats great results followed by real cash flows in my humble opinion.