Chart Pattern For what it is worth I took a look at the TLT chart and TD Waterhouse technical service. They identified this as a rounded bottom pattern on a weekly chart Jan 3rd 2020 with an expected long-term price (9+ months) of $0.61 to 0.63/share.
How effective are these signals? I find they work best when they align with fundamental news that support the price target. Jan 31st 2019 there was another long term buy signal based on a bottom wedge pattern with a target of 0.60 to 0.66/share. TLT as you recall got up to 0.60/share last year on March 5th - much quicker than expected.
There is a worrisome price gap between 0.25 and 0.26/share (Dec 10 and 11th); gaps do tend to get filled. TD notes overhead resistance at 0.33/share- not surprising as we are under the 50 day and 200 week moving averages at 0.31 and the 200 day ma at 0.34 with support way back at 0.22/share.
Looking at the move from 0.20 to 0.39 I expected a normal correction to take the price back to the 0.28 to 0.31 level. If the gap were to get filled it hopefully will be a very brief inter-day sell off followed by a rebound. It might take some news to propel the price through the moving averages and then keep it there.
The longer term pattern is bullish assuming no chnages in the company fundamentals.There is some short-term price weakness and uncertainty to deal with. Based on the speed of the upturn in prices a year ago those 0.54 warrants might still be in play and some or all could be exercised before they expire.
If I really wanted to own the stock I would be buying under 0.30 if I could get it and forget about those warrants as having much if any value.