GREY:ALARF - Post by User
Comment by
Capharnaumon May 06, 2020 1:20am
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Post# 30991305
RE:Earnings were decent
RE:Earnings were decentMy take on the results:
If you take out the backdate payments that SBI paid on exit (using 0.9M instead for the 20 days/90 days at $3.967M runrate for 90 days), they collected $24.9M for the quarter. That's $1.7M less than Q1 2019 and $4.7M less than Q4 2020.
For Q2 2020, excluding COVID-19 effects, the runrate would be $23.2M. Pre COVID-19, that would be the weakest quarter since Q3 2018. Including COVID-19 effects, revenue will likely be closer to $19.5M for Q2.
Imo, the results reflect current share price. Should the effects of COVID-19 be limited, there is likely upside. However, for shareholders that bought over $20, it may take a while for the stock to recover, even if they find new solid investments.
Unfortunately, Alaris is still partner with a couple of bad performing investments:
- Providence has finally stopped paying anything and they did write off the value to $0. Hopefully they don't spend further money on it like they did with Sandbox and Group SM.
- CCcomm has stopped paying anything, their ECR is under 1. Write off of 74%.
- Kimco still doesn't pay anything with an ECR under 1.
Otherwise, general comments on other investments:
- The decline in ECR for Federal Ressources might lead to lower contributions in the future.
- Accscient's decline in ECR won't turn around this year.
- PF might be a problem if the gyms suffer lower attendance despite re-opening, with their ECR under 1.5x.
- BCC's turnaround in ECR, with their backlog of clients, is encouraging despite COVID-19.
- GMW and Amur look like solid investments so far... if they can keep finding those better opportunities it would be good for the shareholders long term.