GREY:NMKEF - Post by User
Comment by
Tiger737373on Jun 12, 2020 5:53pm
109 Views
Post# 31145289
RE:RE:RE:Creditor Claim Outcome
RE:RE:RE:Creditor Claim OutcomeHello Takeaction, I have always agreed with your vision on Nemaska, However, on the CCAA file, i do not agree with you on the remaining value for shareholders in the event of a sale. Although the project is evaluated at 2.2 billion after taxes, i doubt that a new owner will give the right price to aquire Nemaska because he will have to put a considerable sum ( 1 billion and maybe more ) to complete the project and the mine.
You know that Nemaska project has enormous potential, 37 000 tons of battery-quality lithium hydroxide are planned. Hydroxide is currently sold at $ 12 500 per ton. I am not talking about the increase in demand as well as the price, wich should increase over next few years. i am not talking about the possibility of an increase in the Shawinigan plant ( phase 3, 60 000 tons by year ). Or What i mean is that a stock market recapitalization would be preferable in my opinion, unlike a buyout
You know, the potential new investor could own more than 70 % of the business with a new share issue at a reasonable price of 50 cents per share. In addition, this investor would have the assurance of doubling its market capitalization with a major investment of 2 billion shares. With an investment at a reasonable price, the former shareholders who financed the project have the assurance of recovering their initial participation.
You know i am talking about a new 100 % equity financing scenario. Let's imagine a scenario with another bond deal, but this time with a better interest rate and of course with a Quebec lessor to avoid the catastrophic scenario of the past few months.
As you know, there are simplistic ratios for valuing a publicly traded secuirity. The mining ratio by its peers is to multiply by 10 the net benefits
Here is an example of refinancing at 50 cents per share / 100% equity financing
1 billion to 50 cents = 2 billion shares
847 million shares + 2 billion new shares = 2 847 000 000 shares
12 500 $ sales prices of hydroxide per ton
4 100 $ cost for hydroxide per ton
12 500 $ - 4 100 $ = 8 400 $ net benefits per ton
37 000 tons x 8 400 $ = 310 800 000 $ annual net benefits.
310 800 000 $ x 10 = 3 108 000 000 $ market capitalization
3 108 000 000 / 2 847 000 000 shares out = 1. 09 $ per share
As you know, a new market capitalization would be better than a sale. Better return on investment in my opinion.
GLTA longs