RE:RE:RE:Air Canada Proposes Science-Based Approach to Easing I'm sorry to say Canada has no resource to implement the so called "science-based" approach as it requires strong contact tracing and testing capabilities
A key element in any contact tracing and testing program is not to overwhelm the system. Unfortunately, a few states in the U.S. have so many cases that effective contact tracing/testing cannot be done.
Los Angeles County
Los Angeles county alone has more Covid-19 cases than 44 entire states, and Latinos make up about 55% of cases. Latinos in California are twice as likely to acquire Covid-19 as white residents, and the average age of California Latinos who have been infected is much younger than other groups. Across the United States, Latinos represent 19% of the population but account for 1/3 of all cases.
One benchmark for a safe re-opening is positive Covid-19 tests
below 5 percent. Canada is currently at
3 percent, well below that benchmark. All provinces have a robust enough contact tracing system in place - and they are improving weekly – to effectively manage contact tracing and testing.
As a result, for the sake of the whole nation, a blanket approach is the cheapest and easiest to implement.
Incident Mortality Rates Continue to Fall The Economist, July 4: Treatments have improved, thanks to research and dealing with patients. Although mass vaccination is still months away at best, the first therapies are available. More is known about how to manage the disease—don’t rush to put people on respirators, do give them oxygen early. Better treatment helps explain why the share of hospital patients who went on to be admitted to intensive care fell in Britain from 12 percent at the end of March to 4 percent in mid to late May.
(Doctors are also prescribing anticoagulation drugs as many patients were dying of blood clots.)
Latest U.S. Covid-19 Statistics Peak hospitalizations in the U.S. occurred on April 15 at just over 59,000, then bottomed out on Jun 15 at about 28,000 before increasing to current levels.
The table below compares two dates when
hospitalizations were similar. Improved treatments and younger average age continue to drive down the mortality rate. (It is estimated that about 40 percent of the population will be
asymptomatic after acquiring Covid-19.)
May 1 July 13 Daily Confirmed Cases 36,161 65,921
Actual Cases
- 10 x (CDC estimate in June) 361,610
- 12 x (updated Gottlieb estimate) 791,000
Hospitalizations 53,121 53,921
ICU 12,845 6,061
On Ventilators 4,707 2,259
Deaths 1,753 464
Note: There is about a two week lag between confirmed cases and deaths, so expect deaths to edge higher before declining again as cases peak and begin to fall in the next month or two, just as it did in NYC a few months ago. Many credible scientists believe the actual number of infected could be as much as 54 times higher than confirmed cases.
Air Canada can scream from the bottom of its lung but I don't think the Canadian Government wants to risk the collapse of our health care system just to make the airline happy. I wouldn’t put too much faith in our Federal Govt/Health officials
Globe and Mail comments in April
As recently as late January, federal officials, including Dr. Tam, said the threat of a major outbreak in Canada was very low, that measures such as travel restrictions weren’t needed, and that the risk of the virus being spread by people without symptoms was highly unlikely.
As late as March 6, Canadian health officials were saying the risk posed by Covid-19 in this country remained low.
Seems the Federal Gov't was wingin' it back then, just as they are now. I’ll take the scientific-based approach anyday.