Stocks... Tonight I sold over 50% of my stocks, just to secure assets - or rather to keep a pile of cash on the sidelines for a bit. This due to that I do not like what I see in the stock markets as a whole.
No, I do not think there is something wrong with GBR, not at all. But I do think that staying all in (like I have done) would be unwise right now. To explain why I sold, let me give some background.
1) I happen to suffer from the exchange rate going the wrong way, meaning that my holdings in foreign currency (CAD) lose value every day compared to my local currency. This eats away at my recent gains. Add that the stocks has been doing a bit poorly during the past weeks, and I can honestly say that I lost close to 20% since when GBR was at +19. That is a lot of money.
The trend lines, if looking at it from a trading perspective, clearly shows that the exchange rate will keep on plummeting. Bad for me.
2) I also keep an eye on the COMEX and spot price, and I am in on the team that think we will see a correction back down to $1670-ish for gold, and this quite soon. Give it 2 months. If this happens, we will se gold strocks go down. All of them, regardless. Gold will go to 2000+, but before that I am pretty sure we will see a correction. Stock markets will react to this.
3) I believe we will see another stock market crash within the next few months anyway. Wuhan virus. War threats. Hong Kong. Perhaps a new strain of virus in the fall.
Having learned my lessons back in March, I will rather sell too early than too late. I lost half of my assets March, now I am well ahead of where I was before the crash. I thank GBR for much of that. I would be foolish not taking profits now. (I already have, in part, by selling on the way up and buying a load of physical gold for an amount that is pretty much equal to what I make in a year on my regular job)
4) I have a feeling that GBR might might have hit the doldrums. Regardless of good/great/amazing news, the stock might not move much in the near term - say 2-4 months. The share price is currently just under $17, and most people do not have enough cash to buy such expensive stocks.
No, I am not kidding. I know the reasoning behind this has flaws, but ithis is how it works:
"I cannot afford to buy (an amount physically gold big enough to seem to be of value) gold, so I buy (an asset that is way cheaper and thus I get "more") silver instead. Same amount of cash goes into the deal, and thus both stacks holds the same value, but people have a tendency rather buying silver than gold if they are a bit late to the party. So yes, there is a chance GBR might not move much even on great news.
If you compared a 10 gram gold bar to a 1 kilo silver bar, you would know what I am talking about.
5) I think there might be better plays coming up in the near term. I will not promote other stocks, I am just saying that there are penny stocks that will become quite volatile in the near future. Stocks that right now are "cheap". So I allocated some of my cash from tonights sale into a few of these stocks, while holding most of it on the sidelines. I am already ahead from tonights purchases, compared to if I had stayed long in GBR.
I canot say when, bit I will buy back my positions in GBR and then some, as I think this is as sure a hand of cards one can hold in the long run. But my gut feelings has been screaming at me for 2 weeks "Sell! Sell! Sell! Make other bets for a while!" so I finally had to give in.
I cannot really say why I write this on here, I guess I just wanted to share my thoughts regarding all this. I really do not like the outlook when looking at the stock markets as a whole. I think it looks cr@p, tbh.
I follow a few people on Youtube. One of the calls himself "the uneducated economist"; and I think he is one of the best you can find. This is what he posted today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEw16qzEhC4
If this happens, and it sure looks it will - what will happen with the stock markets? Worldwide?
The US is pretty much the economic motor of the world.
Remember: You have not made any profit at all until you sell.