Bombardier shares = casinoThe shares are trading like 10-20% chance they will pull out of it and 80-90% they will not (in which case shareholders will get nothing).
Only 3 things will move the share price IMO: reducing the debt, positive cashflow and good decision-making that favors non controlling shareholders. We have none of these 3 at the moment and havent had for 5+ years.
The debt is actually increasing (despite the asset sales!) as Martel just borrowed $1B.
The cashflow was negative in Q2 as expected but bottom line, they haven't been positive cashflow for at least 5 years maybe more (they are every Q4 but that's the annual year end financial engineering to look good).
The decision making doesn't favor non controlling shareholders so far. Two things: Martel said he won't borrow from government. Instead they borrow from private equity at who knows what interest rate (but certainly not 3%). This is pride talking. Boeing for example has no qualms about leveraging the govt to get relatively cheap loans. He also said CDPQ made huge money from BT which is a contribution to Quebec society. Seriously, who gives a flying !@#$? So unless these statements are made to negotiate, they are totally not in the lane of what the CEO of a profit seeking company should be making.
Let's see if August 6 brings any good news on these fronts.
One thing to watch very closely: the aviation backlog. Gulfstream's backlog dropped from $13.3B to $12.1B in 1 quarter. They also had a decent quarter revenue wise as deliveries went up from 24 to 32 (large jet).