if COVID is a long term problem, people will leave the city (fear of transit, working from home more, etc). This would put significant pressure on Riocan as they are focused on development in major cities near public transit.
Covid is an exaggerated problem. You need to compare the flu deaths by age range for 2018, next to the covid numbers...Guess what they are nearly the exact same. The only reason there was lockdowns is because we have underinvested in health care for so many years. Before the new flu hit hospitals were already running at 130% capacity. To avoid emabarrasing the government they shut things down until after flu season.
Cities work for a reason, people get more done around other people, they are more productive and costs come down. Offices work for a reason. Remote is OK at first...however as people leave the company how do you train a new guy over zoom, how do you pass down knowledge of everyone else in the company over a video chat?, offices work because you can walk into someones cubicle and say "hey what do you think of this idea?" Do you think you can get that stuff done by scheduling a zoom call..maybe the guy is out fishing or taking a poo.
Bottom line is your a useless shorter who wants them to cut the dividend so you no longer have to pay it every month. I have news for you, with a $1 billion in free funds, $9 billion in unencumbered assets, the best assets in the country, Riocan is going no where and has only got stronger. When target left town riocan lost 10% of their revenue...they replaced it all within a year and never cut the dividend.
And finally the stores are packed, people are spending money, the value of their "houses" aka the wealth effect is up substantially over the last year, the goverment will continue printing money and riocan will be just fine. But don't believe me google Riocan malls, and check the google traffic statistics for yourself.
And last but not least riocan has a ton of new developments coming on line by year end..leases already signed and new tenants moved in, about $50 million worth in new cash flow will easily replace the ones who go bankrupt and leave. In fact here is a summary....
The Well RioCan has commercial, retail and residential ownership stakes with partners Allied Properties REIT, Tridel and Woodbourne in The Well, a massive mixed-used development covering 7.8 acres in the west part of downtown Toronto that will comprise more than three million square feet of office, retail, condominium and rental living spaces and amenities. Construction is up to the 20th floor of the office tower RioCan is involved with, and work on the multifamily rental components above its retail elements will start shortly. RioCan is in discussions with potential retail tenants and expects a couple of bank branches to be included as it targets a late 2022 opening for its 415,000 square feet of retail space. “Up to now it’s been difficult to finalize any deals because the retailers haven’t been able to see what they’re potentially going to be going into,” said Duncan. “And two years is a long time for a retail tenant to contemplate in advance.” Shopify has committed to 475,000 square feet of office space at The Well, with Index Exchange committed to 200,000 square feet, Spaces to 127,000 square feet, and Quadrangle to 50,000 square feet. Konrad Group and Intuit will also occupy The Well. Other RioCan developments in Toronto RioCan and Woodbourne are 50-50 partners on Litho, a mixed-use development at 740 Dupont St. that will have eight storeys featuring 210 rental apartments and 30,500 square feet of retail at street level. Leases have been signed with grocer Farm Boy and the LCBO. Construction is scheduled for completion in spring of 2021. Pivot is a mixed-use project with a 36-storey, 361-unit apartment building near Yonge Street and Sheppard Avenue at 35 Greenfield Avenue. It has direct access to RioCan’s Yonge Sheppard Centre. The tower is nearing completion and leasing is expected to start this year. Construction is underway at Strada, a 50-50 partnership with Allied which has 61 rental apartments over seven floors and 5,600 square feet of retail at street level at 555 College St. Completion is scheduled for spring 2021. ePlace is comprised of: the 58-storey, 623-unit eCondos residential condominium tower; a 36-storey, 466-unit eCentral apartment building; a 20,000-square-foot commercial condo; and 22,000 square feet of retail space near Yonge Street and Eglinton Avenue. Construction is complete and residential condo sales have closed, while 89.5 per cent of eCentral’s units had been leased as of May 4. All of the retail space is leased, with three restaurants operating and a TD Bank branch expected to open this year. RioCan is in a 50-25-25 partnership with Metropia and Capital Developments on 11YV, a proposed 62-storey development with 586 condo units and more than 34,000 square feet of retail space at 11 Yorkville Ave. Queen Ashbridge is a proposed mixed-use community with rental and condo residences and more than 16,000 square feet of retail on a 3.3-acre site at the corner of Queen Street East and Coxwell Avenue. RioCan’s Ottawa developments Lincoln Fields is the 16-acre site of an underperforming enclosed shopping centre at 2525 Carling Ave. in Ottawa. The Metro grocery store will move to another part of the property, freeing up room for a mixed-use development. About 40 per cent of the existing mall has been demolished. RioCan has site plan approval to move the Metro and build smaller retail spaces around it as it works to rezone the rest of the property for multiple residential towers. Duncan hopes that process will be completed early in 2021. He expects the site to include a bank branch and daycare facility. “Given the proximity of a new LRT and a lot of old-stock residential rental in the area that’s been quite successful, we determined that a mall wasn’t the highest-and-best use for that site any longer,” said Duncan. Construction is complete for Phase 1 of Frontier, a 23-storey, 228-unit apartment building at RioCan’s Silver City Gloucester shopping centre. The apartment, a joint venture with Killam Apartment REIT, was 98.7 per cent leased as of May 4. Latitude, the second phase of the Frontier project, is a 20-storey, 209-unit apartment building in which RioCan is equal partners with Killam. Construction is expected to be finished in 2021. Construction is underway at Luma, which will have 168 rental apartment units and 11,000 square feet of retail over nine storeys on 3.7 acres on St. Laurent Boulevard. Completion is expected in 2022. Construction has started at Rhythm, a mixed-use development with a 24-storey, 216-unit rental apartment building and 20,000 square feet of retail next to RioCan’s Westgate Shopping Centre on Carling Avenue. Completion is anticipated for late 2022 or early 2023. Calgary’s 5th & 3rd East Village and Brio 5th & Third East Village is an urban mixed-use development featuring a two-storey, 159,000-square-foot retail podium below 42- and 25-storey residential towers. More than 80 per cent of the retail space has been leased. Real Canadian Superstore opened on the second floor in May, while TD, ScotiaBank, Winners and Freshslice Pizza are expected to open this quarter. Brio is a mixed-use development with a 12-storey, 163-unit apartment building atop a 10,000-square-foot retail podium located on a portion of RioCan’s Brentwood Village shopping centre. “We’re trying to find a use there that’s synergistic with the rest of the project,” said Duncan, who expects a restaurant to be among the retail tenants. Boardwalk REIT is RioCan’s 50/50 partner in Brio and is responsible for the apartment lease-up, which began in March just before COVID-19 shutdowns. Duncan is “quite happy” 43 units were leased by mid-July and that leasing velocity has been picking up. Windfield Farms in Oshawa Windfield Farms is a site at 20 Simcoe St. N. in Oshawa, Ont. with plans for 513 townhomes, 503 high-rise rental apartment units and 819,000 square feet of retail. RioCan has owned the property for a long time and originally pictured it as a retail centre, but is now partnering with Tribute Communities to build the housing component, which is underway. A FreshCo grocery store will be a retail anchor and is expected to open this year. RioCan will apply for permission to build a Costco on the other side of the street for the next phase of development.