Jmgreen wrote: Yes, six months is more for revenue, I would like to see 2 quarters of revenue after LBF is up and running, after all LBF and co-packers is what has been preached by the company as our goal and when we would start to move.
As far as letting us know who these copackers are I agree with you, we need to hear something in short order. I really feel like I need to see something from them leading up to Jan 20th. New administration and AG, I believe can really start movement in the US pot stocks, if Tinley is still "the best little secret" in the industry then they aren't going to be getting in on the ride. It isn't even a case of losing faith in Tinley (which I am to a certain extent) it is more the opportunity cost of holding this investment.
Emotions are getting hot here and on FB group, generally I kind of like when the bashers line up as it often precedes some sort of run up or good news coming. However this time many of the voices are those of the long time investors. One of Tinley's biggest strengths has been the investor loyalty (when lets face it there have been many reasons to doubt) if Tinley loses that I think the SP would really suffer.
Jan will be a big month, Georia senate run off (not really expect a dem win but if it happened watch out) , Biden/New AG, and to a lesser extent, but to me could be pretty telling of where Tinley sits in its space currently, High Times Canabis Cup winners announced Jan 24.
I'd also like to see some proof of the RTD drinks actually being available, this was hinted at previously by someone who is clearly a basher, but basher or not there is no evidence anywhere that it is selling.
It is often thrown about that Tinley doesn't like fluff NRs, but I am of the mind all they have put out really is fluff in that there are never any dates (that are met) or numbers attached to them. Licensed/commisioned/fully running LBF is the foundation of the company's Cali operations clearly and having that behind us (assuming the tweaks they mentioned are done) is huge, Beckett's in Costco could be huge (or go nowhere). 2021 could be setting up to being a monster year for Tinley, and literally one solid news release about a well known copacker or the actual date for Tinley sales in Canada could change all this sentiment and have the sweat pants talk come back, but if things don't work out we can only blame ourselves at this point for taking the word of a company that has yet to keep it. When I say that I mean it purely in the fact they haven't actually met one date that they have put out there (although strangely enough have surprised us with some news that was not even alluded to) not that there are any shady motivations behind the misses. Some may have been out of their control (creating a new business, through a very challenging political climate during a pandemic) and some probably were misteps.
However you look at it, Tinley now is on the clock, they were able to shutter down everything and wait for licensing and commisioning and keep spending under control (which has been one of the strengths of the company) but now they need to be out there, that costs money, if they aren't seeing revenue they will have to raise it and then the small float we all like to talk about goes away little by little.
Good riddance 2020, let us look forward to 2021, hopefully next year's year in review is more talking about Tinley's successes and less about their short comings.
pungentaroma wrote: Well said JM. You are speaking for many on here now. I'm in th same boat.Either Tinley starts to execute in a much bigger way or this team can not get the job done.
We've given them ample time to produce and so far we have seen 1 disappointment after another. Some not their fault but some definitely the fault of mistakes on the company's actions.
As for your 6 month timeline, I will give them that for revenue growth (and it better be substantial) but will not give them anywhere near that amount of time for Co-pck signings and for Tinley in Canada.
I expected $1 by the end of this year. We had numerous catalysts that should have taken us there but we missed on too many to move the needle. We are also dealing with a company that completely refuses to take investors interests to heart. We are saying the same things we said 4 years ago. Jeff doesn't like fluff NR's and so we remain the least known entity in the MJ space yet we've built a manufacturing facility in Cali, have created great tasting drinks that have won awards, have an incredibly strong investor base that shows far more loyalty to the company than the company does it's investors.
Going forward short term, I need to see a big push into Canada, the largest THC beverage market in the world. I want to see a SP reflecting some kind of growth based on revenues and progress into Canada, Cali and beyond. I'd like to see the end of holding back our SP for whatever reasons and letting this run. Stop the PP's that bring in very little but keep happening whenever we start to see some growth in the SP.
Lastly, we may need to think about placing someone that understands the CEO position with a wealth of experience that can generate a higher SP, can bring in new investors at higher prices and get deals done at these higher prices. We may need to look at a partner with pockets to stop all the PP's and give us breathing room to grow,
We have an amazing team but most of them bring value once we are ready to promote and build this company. We need to see these assets put to use. We have everyting in place as far as infrastructure is concerned. We now need to move this into a growth stage with promotion, sales and deeper pockets.
Jmgreen wrote: Over all I would say I'm disappointed with where we are as a company at the end of 2020, with milestone after milestone missed, this time last year I definitely thought by end of year we would be further ahead. That being said I am optimistic about the progress made in the last few months. I've sat on shares (and actually accumulated) for the last 4 years, I've never really had any hard timelines as they were always having to deal with things I could reasonably write off as out of their control. While there are still things out of their control like Covid and a miriad of unknowns, these things will be faced by all other companies I consider putting my money in. Just a little context to where I am in terms of a Tinley investor, I have a large position in TNY (probably not the biggest on here but certainly not the smallest), enough that although it doesn't make up the majority of my portfolio it is my 2nd largest single holding and I have enough that the swings either way are noticeable in my overall net worth.
So now here it is, as much as it would pain me to get out before Tinley sees it's vision through, I now have a timeline that I expect to see some tangeble milestones.
Six months, two quarters; come July there are certain things I expect to see in order for Tinley to continue to keep my investment.
Firstly, copackers. I don't need twelve but what I do need to see is the one that is supposed to put Tinley on the map. I appreciate there is a lot that goes into signing these deals but 6 months seems like enough time to finalize deals you've been talking about for a year.
Secondly (this isn't really in Tinley's control however the forementioned copacker putting us on the map would help), once Biden is in office and the new AG is nominated I really hope to see Tinley part of any greenrush that may or may not happen.
Thirdly, Canada. This expansion needs to happen and product needs to be available for sale in the relatively short term.
Fourthly, revenue! I'm not sure what numbers would make me happy, but I expect a significant increase in Q over Q revenue numbers. Not necessarily profit, but expanding revenue showing growth.
I really think Tinley for the first time is in do or die mode. The next six months will be very telling. Right now we have no idea how anything is selling, we have no idea how many dispensories are stocking it, we can't even use the whole ganjarunner tracking that some were doing since Hightimes delivery won't show inventory that way. What we do know is Tinley is only selling the Rum, Whiskey and Ameretto, not the Coffee cask and NONE of the single serves. We know the single serves were delayed but they are now one month post announced production. How long does it take to get product on the Hightimes delivery platform (honest question I really don't know). What I do know is with covid lockdowns in much of Cali having a delivery option is more important than ever. One thing that may also skew my timeline one way or another is how we do in the Cannabis Cup. If Tinley can win (with more compitetion) that will show we are still one of the best in class products and that gives Jeff and Rick more ammo to sell. If we don't even place it will show me that all the time the company has taken has let others come in and possibly overtake us.
Beckett's, still not entirely sold on this category but there is no doubt it has peaked the attention of many (so I suppose I am sold on the market, just not the reason behind it, call me old school). The problem is that it has peaked the interest of others and with no barriers to entry and infinitely more money and resources than we have I'm not sure Tinley will be able to succeed here as much as they hope. Does that mean they shouldn't try, no of course not, from what I can tell there is very little extra work for Tinley and the potential for large growth. But this is a place were Tinley's lack of money will really hurt them.
And lastly Rick needs to stay with the company. I have no issues with Jeff but this is his baby and he would likely stay with a sinking ship if it ever came to that. Rick has all the credentials to get another opportunity to make likely more money than Tinley is paying. So as long as he sees Tinley as a place to invest his time (and money ) I see that as a big positive.
Do I think Tinley can pull this off? Yes, otherwise I would sell now, but do I think I need to start looking at Tinley as a startup that may or may not make it, well ask me again in 180 days.