RE:RE:You need to read JohnnyTSX post on CFPCNDian wrote: Here is his post: RE:trouble is if you look at long term chart of the producers Its a really good question. Here is why I think this time is different: Fibre challenges (and politics) in western Canada are forcing big players to look elsewhere for production capacity while demand grows. This is bullish for pricing.As you've mentioned, large players are ATM machines right now at current pricing. They are on a path to have squeaky clean balance sheets with little to no debt and access to large amounts of capital to expand into the US or Europe if they choose, or as is WFTs case, merge with a large OSB producer or other engineered wood producers. Further, the pressure to raise dividend yields and buy back shares will be very siginificant in the coming days/weeks - have a listen to the quarterly calls for clues there.Duties have been reduced for almost all major producers by a factor of at least 50%. This is a significant cost savings.The US housing market, when north of 1 million starts, will pressure lumber demand on existing production and pressure pricing. All US forecasts are bullish on starts in the coming yearsThe US Fed is in a bit of a pickle. Its going to have to battle some inflation, but due to the pandemic, there doesn't seem to be any appetite to raise interest rates (although they probably should imo). Low interest rate environment = more housing construction.Young people want out of the cities and into the subs. This is driving single family house buidling.The pandemic is leaving some middle class wiht more disposable income becuase they aren't traveling. People are renovating, expanding, etc - all using lumber products.I am not saying $1,000 lumber is here to stay. It is likely to pull back a bit into the summer months, but I don't envision a scenario where it pulls back anywhere near pre-pandemic pricing and aside from inflation in wages and stumpage which is usually indexed to markets in some way, producer costs have been fairly stable. All in all, pricing north of $350 USD for most producers, results in positive cashflow. We're around $1,000 USD presently. Enjoy the ride as there is room for further share price appreciation from this point in all producers. GLTA
They had an analyst on BNN the other day that largely agrees with this.. saying the current price is not likley to stay at 1000... but he said the new base price will be 500 bucks..