RE:RE:RE:JV economicsAgreed. My timeline was a bit off. Here's what I see from the PRs on the website:
1. 11/30/09. Letter of Intent to Sell 25%. More importantly, here's what I recalled from the PR:
"This transaction also represents a major advancement of plans to develop our 100% owned Prosperity gold/copper project. With the closing of this transaction, we will have a significant portion of the equity requirement for the construction of a new mine at the Prosperity property."
https://www.tasekomines.com/investors/news-releases/taseko-to-receive-cad180-million-to-joint-venture-25-of-gibraltar-mine
So we all took that at face value, meaning that the funds were being raised to fund Prosperity.
The share price opened at $3.11 that day, and closed at $3.98. At the time, we all believed that the jump was due to the aforementioned sentence, and not because the JV set a higher price. In fact, just like the recent PP, we were all furious that the company "sold out" just before the permit was issued when it could have cut a much better deal after. (The best thinking at the time was that the Taseko was worth $10/share with a Prosperity permit in hand).
2. 3/24/10. PR advises that the Sojitz deal was papered up.
https://www.tasekomines.com/investors/news-releases/taseko-signs-agreement-with-sojitz-corporation
Share price closed at $4.88 that day, mostly unchanged.
3. 4/1/10. PR advises the Sojitz deal closes.
Here's a blurb from the PR:
Russell Hallbauer, President and CEO of Taseko commented, “I am very pleased to be entering into this long-term relationship with world-class partners - Sojitz, Dowa and Furukawa. Additionally, our favourable debt free balance sheet today will maximize our cash flow from Gibraltar, particularly in the current copper pricing environment. After the repayment of our credit facility, cash on hand today is approximately C$190 million. This cash secures a significant portion of the required capital to fund the construction of our wholly-owned Prosperity Gold-Copper Project.”
https://www.tasekomines.com/investors/news-releases/taseko-completes-gibraltar-mine-joint-venture-with-japanese-consortium
So everyone was jacked up that the permit was imminent given the fact that the company clearly appeared to be selling a significant portion of the company to fund Prosperity. And who in their right mind sells 25% of the company's primary asset if they don't know for sure that the permit is forthcoming?
The share price closed at $5.43 that day. Note that the share price was much higher than the imputed value derived from the Sojitz sale. Which again supports the theory that it wasn't the Sojitz deal setting the share price, it was the PR stating that funds were being raised to fund Prosperity.
4. By the end of July, 2010, the share price was back down to $4.00. And that's what I was misrecalling. I had it in my mind that the drop from $6 to $4 was much quicker. I had forgotten the excitement built by those to PRs that the funds were being raised to build the mine, and one can't build a mine without a permit. Hence, the permit was on its way.
5. 11/3/10. Permit is denied, and the rest is history . . . .
All of that said, I am very optimistic about Florence. I think/hope the EPA permit is on its way, and I don't believe the Town of Florence has the stomach for a fight with the EPA.
And I believe copper has a lot higher to go over the next year or two. So with a little luck, we ought to see a much higher share price from here.