jfm1330 wrote: I see the same frustration we had during the ibalizumab/Trogarzo story. We thought, back then, that the probability of approval was not fairly recognized in the stock price, the same for the commercial potential of the drug. We were right on the odds of approval, but totally wrong on the commercial potential. But after approval, the stock price rose sharply. So when fact are there, the SP follows.
In the case of TH1902, it is a totally different story. We are talking about a preclinical drug never tested on humans. A drug, like Trogarzo, aiming at the last line of treatment, a drug, at least at first, aiming to help the patients without any other option left. Very similar to Trogarzo in that regard, but one is at the pre-clinical stage, while the other was about to go in phase III when Thera acquired the rights. It was about to go in phase III, but with convincing phase II data to back the optimism for approval.
At this point, Thera only paid 2 M$ US to acquire Katana two years ago, plus paying for the new employees and for the pre-clinical work that hase been done since then to allow a phase I to start. There will be a milestone payment of 1.5 M$ US in shares of the company when the first patient of the phase I will be enrolled, and a second payment in shares of 1.8 M$ US if the proof of concept is demonstrated after the phase I.
So two years ago Thera was able to buy this oncology platform for basically 2 M$ US and an agreement to spend the necessary money to push it in phase I. Milestone in the deal are related to the initiation of a phase I trial and its success. That says something about the level of confidence on both sides at the time of the deal. Katana was unable to find a better offer, so, if I follow the logic of many here, I guess Katana's management did not promote enough what they had in their hands at the time. If TH1902 is clearly successful in phase I, imagine how Katana's management that made that deal with Thera will look bad! Oh! they gave away their technology! The thing is, they did not have the money to develop it. Reminds me of something...
I think the price Thera paid for Katana is a good reflection of the level of risk that is involved in all this. It should be taken into account when analyzing the actual value of this program. Yes Thera made more preclinical work in the last two years, tried it on other types of cancer, but when it comes down to the proof of concept in humans, they are basically at the same place they were two years ago. That means with no data. This is the big jump, the big unknown. If this jump is clearly successful, it's the stock that will jump, a lot. But until this critical test is made, TH1902 is just another hopeful preclinical drug and no major media will talk or write about it. This project is likely to be boom or bust.
SPCEO1 wrote: It may be a long shot but it is worth a try and could be successful if handled correctly. TH would need to spend money on a professional PR firm who would know best how to position the story with the press. First you get it in some medical press and then you can potentially leverage that coverage into broader coverage in the business and general press. The headline should be something like "Is a tiny Canadian company on the cusp of a major breakthrough in defeating cancer?" The TH 1902 story is intriguing and compelling. It might be a story that the press would run with.
jfm1330 wrote: These big medias won't do an article about a pre-clinical cancer drug. Comparing these with the UQAM little news bulletin is not right.
Wino115 wrote: THIS is why they need to call business press, magazines and pitch the story. It will be taken up. This is obviously the Montreal connections, but US business press is also always looking for stories like this. I hope the PR side, either Leah or the guy who starts the CC's, calls AP, UPI, Bloomberg, WSJ, NYT Science staff, Stat News, etc... and pitches this complelling story.