RE:Time to turn a new leaf hereLooks like you were too quick. Here is to hoping there is no extension.
blackdog wrote: It is a pleasure to see discussion about Bonterra itself on this board again. And yes, the production numbers are positive; although the resulting cash flow will be committed to capex: they have eleven new wells on the go; another five on the board; and are cleaning up abandonments wholesale. The first quarter numbers will cement in the improving metrics that we can all see and I doubt that the Jun bank redetermination will prove challenging.
Bonterra has long had a reputation for delivering what it promises; within what it can control – the past few years have been dominated by external events. Bonterra was caught out by these and there is work to do to get the balance sheet back in balance, but there is an increasingly clear path to achieving this. A path that will become more obvious and the pace of which will accelerate going forward.
The coming week will be interesting as we march towards the latest “deadline” in Obsidian’s never-ending temper tantrum of an offer. An offer that was dead on arrival; and lacked any real rationale for its two extensions, as neither offered anything new to its target audience. Equally, there is nothing new that I can offer on this subject(see below, ad nauseam) save to observe, for our refugees from the Obsidian camp who perennially focus on relative share values, that these are meaningless. The share exchange is not a price to start with, and the market for OBE (on which this argument depends) is curious; as others have observed.
The short report came out early last week and during the first two weeks of Mar the bulk of the action in OBE was shorting and short covering. With over a million share shorted at the end of Feb, OBE saw another 527K shares shorted over the period. But this was matched and exceeded by a net change in the consolidated short position that saw this drop to 854K shorted as of 15 Mar; so 706K of the two weeks of trading was short covering. This short churning totals 44% of all the trading and is more than 100% of OBE’s volume on the TMX. I can spill the tea and show these leaves; but what do they say? Except that there is not much real liquidity, and no evidence that “investors” are excited about Obsidian’s prospects.
We will find out this week. In addition to Obsidian’s audited 2020 year end, which seems delayed, we still don’t know what is going on with management (see last press release on this from 5 Jan, wherein the contract for the interim CEO was extended to 31 Jan). The same press release suggested that Obsidian’s seven-well program for the first half of 2021 might expand to eight, but there is no evidence of this having happened, as Saturday’s well activity map shows only four wells being drilled now with the other four licenced, but not spudded. And, of course, Obsidian has its own bank redetermination due on 31 Mar. This has been extended twice now, and I doubt if anyone would be shocked if it were put off again.
Is it too much to hope for that folded into all the news that Obsidian needs to make before next Monday will be a note announcing the demise of “the offer”?