Crew's Upside is Impressive I agree with posters that Crew does need to address their debt position before we can start seeing share price go much above $2 and IMO Crew Management is most likely weighing their options now. They can and I believe will sell Tower and Attachie to address the debt situation and get it to a very manageable level.
The present for Crew is West Septimus and the future for Crew is Groundbirch as it is one huge contiguous land block which is IMO rare to have a huge land block of this size in a highly desired portion of the Montney. This block comprise 280 sections and likely could fetch easily 2 to 3 million per section as a block which equates to $560 to $840 million. This would of course get rid of the debt and basically the company. So I believe Crew will not sell any of this land as it is the present and future (and a great future at that).
So this leaves Attachie and Tower, which I believe are both highly desired properties with what looks like increased drilling activity in close proximity. Land sales in 2018 in relatively close proximity fetched in the $2 to $3.5 million per section range. Attachie is 54 sections and Tower is 53 sections. i believe the lowest dollar valus would be $1 million per section which would reduce debt by approximately $107 million bring total debt to approximately $250 million. I think they are more likely to fetch $2 million per section which would bring the debt down by 214 million. This would bring debt to $143 million.
Fortunately the increased oil price should make the heavy oil assets more marketable and even if Crew cannot sell them at this time they should contribute positively to the cash flow. If they can sell these assets then I could see $30 milion being on the low side, but take away another $30 million from the debt and then we have $113 miilon total debt with bascially a small impact on cash flow.
There will be few critics of my post especially of course Beakr but I hope some of you will appreciate. Obviously all this information is readily available so any of you could come up with the same numbers.
The future of Crew is good and like all of you I just hope it happens sooner than later. If we sell these assets assuming they have the value I have quoted above we will realize an excellent share appreciation well above $2. As always I welcome your comments (well not sure about Beakrs). Just a few thoughts for you to ponder.