AGM and 10:1 vote June 30th >>> Should get a production update with or aftrer the AGM.
I expect he first production will include a lot of development ore bcause attention will have been turned to developing the second and beyond stope areas while the grouting was being accomplished.
Chances are that the grouting will have slowed the movement of high grade ore from the first stope but in exchange the mining work will have been turned to preparing the next areas.
We will be at 3,000 tons per day in two or 3 weeks and at a full 5,000 tons per day in about 4 to 5 months.
Probabaly will soon have 2 million pounds of copper per month and then moving up as more high grade is brought up and then at least 5 million pounds per month by year end.
Cheers,
Notgnu
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Reasons I own NCU:
Nevada, USA = one constitution for over 200 years vs DRC = 6 in 60 years
Future open pits have gold and silver credits not pre sold in any stream deal
Future open pits are already permitted to allow 70,000 tpd production
A possible 100,000 tpd mine was recently spoken about by the CEO
Copper has run way beyond the $3.20 price assumptions in the NI-43-101
The new mill is successfully ramping up to 5000 tpd capacity (prob ~50% now)
Full copper production 3rd or 4th quarter 2021
Minimal hedges roll off soon
Covid uncertainty all but gone now with vaccines out
No insider selling for 10 yrs despite past issues
Banks lending at reasonable rates
Highly experienced CEO with 3,500,000 share rights which align him with us.
A mining friendly jurisdiction with plenty of experienced labour availablity
A share consolidation of 10:1 to be announced June 30 2021 = more fund buying
Expansion drilling underway, so decades more resources will be added
Potential risks include:
Problems with the mine plan leading to more cost
Copper price dropping a lot
Mine accidents
Another Covid shut down
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Interpretation of the 2020 share price collapse:
Covid hit and the mine was shut down. It was bad timing in terms of funds to get production up and running. Cash was not there and it looked like another dilution was to happen
Selling came in with very little buying support. Then the situation changed for the better yet investors were scared.
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Insider average share cost:
Pala / Iorich ~40 % owner > $0.51 (calculated as of January financing)
NCU director Nutter > $0.32 (calculated as of Dec 2020)
NCU director Albanese > $ 0.41
NCU director Brown > $0.31
NCU chairman Gill > $0.21
NCU senior VP Joseph > $.32
NCU director Cochrane > $0.67
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NCU: Some history on the underground portion:
Throughout 2019 copper prices declined about $0.75 per pound, from ~$3.00 to ~ $2.25 (March of 2020) This was the first major hit to the share price. The NI 43-101 assumed an average price of $3.00.
Quote: "Consensus prices per the 2019 NI 43-101 Tech Report : US$2.83 – 3.20 lb Cu"
Covid shut the mine down just when start up production was about to occur. Copper ~$2.25 at the time. NCU dropped to $0.24
The share price continued to decline and only in June 2020 did it have a small pop back to the $0.20 area, presumably because copper went to ~$2.75 thus making the mine viable again (all in cost of $1.89 underground, leaving $0.86 per pound net profit.)
Cash was needed to get to positive cash-flow and support debt obligations thus the now infamous dilution and refinancing at a about net $0.14
Shareholders bailed on mass with the tax loss season and covid doom in the air, leaving the share price to hit 2020 lows of ~$0.07 to $0.10
Since then both the copper price and importantly, the outlook for copper, have improved markedly. This affects everything. NCU is affected more than most because going from almost bankrupt, to having a very profitable outlook, creates a larger leverage effect than going from profitable to more profitable (as is the case with other low hedged, mid sized copper mines
Since the life saving July 2020 financing NCU's marginal profit is now 250% of what it was then ($2.14 vs $0.86 p/pound) Note: the $2.14 today is based on $4.00 copper, minus $1.86 AISC
During the time copper prices went up the mine build progressed amazingly well. The mill was tested to run great at 'nameplate' of 5000 TPD and the underground hoisting and ore crushing have successfully been commissioned... a shout out to the new CEO and the NCU team.
NCU's hedging is relatively small and applies to only the first 6 months of 2021 leaving the vast majority of the copper open to the new higher copper prices.
The recent financing converted another big piece of debt to equity so the balance sheet is in great shape.
Despite the troubles in the past there has been no insider selling for 10 years and insiders hold a lot of stock cumulatively, with Pala / Iorich holding about 40% at an average price that is greater than $0.51.
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Additional 83 million tons of ore likely available underground.
More drilling will be done to confirm the size and grade of this ore body and it may easily increase and is very economical at $4.00 copper price.
The current "measured and indicated" category is 54 million tons at 1.39% copper and the "Inferred" is 29 million tons at 1.09% copper. (these are in addition to the 13 years [24 million tons] of 1.6% that we are about to start mining.)
Taken together there is another approximately 60 million tons of about 1.2% copper in the measured / indicated category (also subject to more drilling expansion) to provide an additional 27 years of mill feed using 6000 tons per day.
The math is: 60 million ton / 6,000 tpd / 365 days a year = 27 years.
The grade is (about) 1.2% copper average
So, 6000 tpd X 365 days per year x .012 grade X .9 recovery X 2000 p per ton = 47 m pounds of copper per year for additional 27 years above the first 13 years.
At $4.70 copper ($2.84 p pound free cash-flow) X 47 m pounds = $133 m per year underground
Total additional = 27 more years of $133 m US per year, beyond the first 13 years of $184 million USD per year
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Corporate presentations:
https://nevadacopper.com/site/assets/files/4190/ncu_october_2020_final.pdf
https://nevadacopper.com/site/assets/files/4209/2021-03-ncu-cp.pdf
Robert Pavich Video (last 10 minutes is best)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hk_WhFu7FlA&feature=emb_logo
New video feature CEO Mike C.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIEmMHVZefA
Article:
https://provenandprobable.com/copper-corrects-from-an-all-time-high-nevada-copper-offers-value-and-a-bullish-trend/
==================================================================
Summary of key NCU news releases:
2013, Sept 9: (copper~$3.30)
>>>Final permit for underground mine build, plus loan financing.
2013, Nov 14: (copper~$3.20)
>>>Stand alone open pit feasibility study filed using $2.75 copper
2014, Dec 15: (copper~$2.75)
>>>Land bill passed by Senate and House of Reps
2015, May 28: (copper~$2.45)
>>>Feasibility results. Mine life increased by 5 years.
>>>A description of economic results with three base case scenarios for copper.
2015, June 1 - July 15: (copper~$2.25)
>>>Three more positive drill result releases, including 400’ of 1% copper
2015, Aug 17: (copper~$2.25)
>>>Full permit for open pit is obtained
2015, Aug 21: (copper~$2.25)
>>>BLM conveys 10,000 acres of land to NCU.
2015, Sept 10 & Nov 3: (copper~$2.20)
>>>Two more sets of positive drill results
2016, June 9: (copper~$2.15) $4.8 million raised at $0.60.
>>>Total shares NCU shares outstanding = 88 million
2017, May 23: (copper~$2.55)
>>>Pala P.P. 10% premium to the market = $0.66 for 3.7 million shares.
>>>Total NCU shares outstanding = 93 million
2017, Dec 17 and 2018, Jan 12: (copper~$3.20)
>>>Construction financing and debt restructuring
2018, Feb 26: (copper~$3.20)
>>>Restart of underground mine construction after the raising of more funds.
2018, March 5: (copper~$3.10)
>>>$128 million from Pala for an additional 256 million shares. $0.50 each
2018, May 15: (copper~$3.05)
>>>Open pit extension drill results including 42 metres of 2% copper
2018, July 17: (copper~$2.75)
>>>Additional equity financing. $108 million, $0.60 per share;
>>>Total NCU shares outstanding = 660 million
2018, Sept 6: (copper~$2.60)
>>>$70 million received in exchange for (underground only) Au & Ag metal stream.
2018, Sept 10: (copper~$2.65)
>>>PEA received for the open pit using $3.20 long term copper.
2018, Nov 13: (copper~$2.75)
>>>Announcement to update technical report to include new info and PEA
2019, Feb 22: (copper~$2.75)
>>>Announcement of 5,700 additional acres staked for exploration, thereby expanding the Pumpkin Hollow property by 32%
2019, April 16: (copper~$2.90)
>>>New open pit PFS study published with updated numbers ($3.20 long term copper price is used)
2019, May 16: (copper~$2.70)
>>>$40 million combined private placement and public share sale $.040
2019, Dec 16: (copper~$2.80)
>>>Copper production commenced and ramp up to full 5000 tpd expected by mid 2020.
>>>65 m pounds p/ye projected from underground. Cost = $1.86 (all in sustaining cost)
2019, Dec 17: (copper~$2.80)
>>>Pala announces buying shares in the public market at $0.29 per share
>>>Pala’s total of the financing =273 million shares, ~ 36% of shares outstanding.
>>>New float is roughly 758 million shares
2020, April 6: (copper~$2.25)
>>>Covid necessitates a shutdown of the newly completed mill
>>>Underground work continues at a reduced pace
2020, July 31: (copper~$2.85)
>>>Equity sale completed. 667 million shares including the over-allotment
>>>This raises $100 million to pay down debt and cover expenses.
>>>New share price is about $0.14 after backing out about $0.02 per warrant attached.
2020, Aug 24: (copper~$2.95)
>>>Production is restarted
>>>Commissioning of hoist, vent shaft and underground crushing continues
2020, Oct 15: (copper~$3.05)
>>>Mike Ciricillo is brought on board as CEO. Mike “...was previously the Head of Copper Industrial Operations for Glencore Plc, where he oversaw Glencore’s worldwide copper assets…”
2021, Jan 29: (copper~$3.55)
>>>Equity financing; 230 million shares issued at $0.16 for proceeds of $38 million.
>>>Pala takes down an additional 80 million shares as a part of a debt to equity trade.
>>>New share total = 1.7 billion. Warrants will bring in about $100m
2021, March 18: (copper~$4.05);
>>>Some 5% ore is encountered in ‘development’ area on route to the new stopes
>>>Expect “grade increases” in combining weeks as stopes are accessed
>>>Hoist is tested to run at 5,000 TPD matching the tested mill capacity
>>>Electrical upgrades mostly completed (due to change in first stope to mine)
2021, April 21: (copper ~ $4.25):
>>>We are a few days away from the first stope to start extracting 2.2% copper
>>>Ventilation upgrades are progressing well
>>>Batch production is running very well at intermittent bursts of 4,700 tpd as development (and soon) new stope ore is being mined.
2021, May 17 (copper ~$4.70)
>>>Mike announces we will be at about 3,000 tpd by the end of q2 (June 30)
>>>Progress slowed a little as cautious progress is made through water bearing dike
>>>Covid has slowed the delivery of the Large surface fans so 5,000 tpd mid q4
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Another way to look at it
Work backwards from q4 full 5000 tpd:
Mid Q4 = full 5000 tons per day which at $4.50 copper is $160 million /yr free cash-flow.
$160 million X 6.3 multiple = $1 billion divided by 1.8 billion shares = $0.55 p/s
add value for a permitted open pit which is an easy $0.25 to $0.40 to me
Discount back to today, less than 6 months from 5,000 tpd
Buying today at 30 cents would be a 150 %, 6 month return.
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Barrick CEO on copper as a strategic metal for the portfolio
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/video/barrick-gold-ceo-says-copper-is-a-fantastic-strategic-asset~1907821
Long term copper supply / demand articles:
https://aheadoftheherd.com/copper-con/
https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2021-05-19/Running-on-MT-peak-copper.html
https://www.mining.com/new-bull-chart-for-30000-copper-price-porphyries-nearly-mined-out/
NCU timing is perfect for new investors
New mine build-out delays mean that copper sales from the relatively high grade new underground mine are hitting the market at what appears to be decades long high copper prices.
In a few short weeks we will be at an initial 3,000 tons per day and, assuming the early ore is blended with lower grade development ore (essentially from tunnelling in) we will probably be running at 1.5% copper and then 2% soon after.
5,000 tons per day from underground will happen in mid q4 but beginning in q2, after dike grouting is completed, we will already be at 3,000 tons per day according to CEO Mike Ciricillo.
So 3,000 tons X 2,000 pounds X 30 days per month X 1.5% copper X 90% recovery equals 2,400,000 pounds of copper per month.
2,400,000 minus 700,000 hedged pounds equals 1,700,000 pounds unhedged.
1,700,000 x $2.81 (after deducting $1.86 all in cost from $4.67 copper) equals $4,777,000 plus about $750,000 from the profit on the hedged copper equals $5,500,000 per month already
At over $5,000,000 per month soon (July 2021) there are no more wolves at the door. The bills and interest are rapidly paid off as this cash flows in
In the fall this cash flow doubles or triples depending on copper prices. After that the company (according to the last presentation) may ramp up the underground to an even higher volume of 6.000 to 6,500 tpd. It was specified at 5,000 tpd but built to accommodate much more. (Talk to Rich about this... I have.)
With the resumption of drilling (the programs ended a few years ago when cash dried up during both low copper prices and expensive bills for the underground and mill construction) the underground and open pit resources will increase.
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In recent months most copper miners have rallied 2 X to 5 X share price return due to long-term copper prices and outlook...
NCU has only just begun to price in the fact of not going bankrupt.
NCU is not yet rated as a "producer," but rather just as a "developer."
NCU is a "producer" now but the share price has yet to catch up.
New interview with CEO Mike Ciricillo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIEmMHVZefA
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2021 start up cash-flow pro-forma (underground only)
2nd quarter: April, May, June:
Average blended grade of 1.3% copper
Average mining and milling rate 1500 tpd
Average $4.50 copper
Hedge portion of 2.1 m pounds
Production above the hedge (1500 tpd X 1.5% copper X 90 days X 2000 pounds per ton X 90% recovery = 3.6 m pounds, minus hedged amount = 1.5 million pounds
1.5 m pounds is below the hedge so this could mean <negative $2 million> + (negative $6 million q1 hedge> = <negative $8 million>
3rd quarter: July, Aug, Sept:
Blended grade of 1.6%, 3,000 tpd, $4.20 copper, remaining hedge of 1,000,000 pounds
Production above the hedge (3000 tpd X 1.7% copper X 90 days X 2000 p per ton X 90% recovery = 8 m pounds, minus the hedge = 7 million pounds
7m X $2.34 per pound (after all in cost) = $16 million, plus about $1 million from the hedge = $17 million free cash-flow
4th quarter: Oct, Nov, Dec:
Grade 1.9%, 5,000 tpd, no more hedge, $4.50 copper
5000 X 1.9% copper X 90 days X 90% recovery = 15.4 m pounds copper
15.4 m X $2.64 per pound = $40 m free cash-flow
2021 < q2 > + q3 + q4 total = $49 million free cash-flow
2022 (using $4.70 copper, underground only) = $184,000,000 free cash-flow.
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Underground alone, after ramp up ($4.70 copper:)
65 million pounds per year x $2.84 ($4.70 - $1.86 = $2.84)
Free cash-flow of about $184 million USD per year at a conservative, low 5 X cash-flow multiple = $923 million, divided by 1.8 billion shares = $0.51 USD = $0.62 CAD
OPEN PIT valued as not yet developed ($4.70 copper:)
IRR (7.5% discounted) of 44% (extrapolated from NCU's Oct 2020 presentation)
NPV of $2.35 b/ 1.8 b shares = $1.30 (then discounted 75% by me) = $0.33 USD = $0.40 CAD
Total share price:$0.62 + $0.40 = $1.02 CAD
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Underground mine after ramp up plus future open pit:
At $4.50 copper, 2.3 billion fully diluted shares and 70,000 TPD open pit:
70,000 tpd X .005 copper equivalent X 88% recovery X 2000 pounds per ton X 365 days per year = 225 million pounds plus 65 million pounds from underground = 290 million pounds X ~ $2.50 profit = $725,000,000 free cash-flow per year.
$0.725 billion p/year cash flow X5 multiple = $3.63 billion / 2.3 billion shares = $1.58 USD p/s
$0.725 billion p/year cash flow X6 multiple = $4.35 billion / 2.3 billion shares = $1.89 USD p/s
$0.725 billion p/year cash flow X7 multiple = $5.08 billion / 2.3 billion shares = $2.21 USD p/s
$0.725 billion p/year cash flow X8 multiple = $5.80 billion / 2.3 billion shares = $2.52 USD p/s
$0.725 billion p/year cash flow X9 multiple = $6.53 billion / 2.3 billion shares = $2.84 USD p/s
$0.725 billion p/year cash flow X10multiple =$7.25 billion / 2.3 billion shares = $3.15 USD p/s
$1.96 CAD to $3.91 CAD per share
Cheers,
Notgnu