Seraphim1 wrote: Nice post. I'd agree with you on all points, except for the 25-45x market cap part, it would be completely possible, if it were not for the minuscule amount of shares held by the insiders.
5.5% or 8.6mm shares of the float makes it impossible for the insiders to control the direction of this company. Any offer to buy the company with a reasonable premium, will be solely determined by the retail investors.....ie. weak hands. Throw a bobble in front of them and they will surely go for it. At that point the company's hands are tied and all they can do is beg those retail investors not to accept the offer.
Unfortunately the lack of insider skin in the game is the biggest failure this company has made. I would've like to see a much bigger controlling ownership. If they executed every step of this so flawlessly, then they certainly failed by not being major shareholders. In all honesty this question is always on my mind, because even if they are the most successful oil play in modern history, they will never capitalize on this success. I am 90% certain that the RECO name will disappear through an acquisition within 6-12 months without ever being able to reap the full rewards it deserves. I hope I'm wrong, but there are plenty of examples out there that support my thesis.
TenneseeOil wrote: FIrst Post, Lurking for a very long time.
Figured I'd post a bit and respond to a few items and then I have a fictional series of posts representing Conversations that may have happened between some of the larger players behind the scenes. (For entertainment only, or maybe not lol)
I'm on a few different message boards on Recon. I did as much due dilligence on this company as I could and I first purchased $10,000 shares in the high .50's I completely believed in the Basin and the Management Team. I spent hundreds of hours going every single thing. I was in the stock before the first post on Seeking Alpha.
However, I'm a small investor and I was looking around at all of the other equities that were on sale and I lost my nerve and took the 150% of easy money and spread it into smaller positions in other companies holding onto 200 of my original shares. I had wet Napkin hands.
(I'm only saying this because I failed to hold a position that I believed in)
Ok as to why the share price could very easily be going up. We've had some amazing catalysts, this company has done everything they have said they would do and more.
Maybe the Anson Story is true although I don't think it is. In terms of the Share Price with the number of shares on file and the price most of them have been accumulated for if everyone on these message boards has even 1/10th of the shares we all profess to we could have 20-45k investors at this point. The share price has been rising on relatively low volume. It's rising because the shareholder base is continuing to accumulate it.
I suspect that we have extreme support Levels at $8 US and $6.50 US. The actual numbers are probably in Canadian and vary slightly. However, this is where existing US buyers will be likely tapping into their Home Equity to accumulate shares. (I do not advocate this lol... Ok Maybe 10% of it)
My point is that we have an active enough group of "Recaffaineators" with either the resources or the Craziness to keep securing shares from those who will let them slip. We also have enough shareholders to keep the price increasing because Recon Africa is a bargain here at USD $10, $12, $15 etc even without further catalysts.
This play is being derisked daily on every front but that doesn't even matter with regards to the bargain of the stock at USD $10, $12, $15 I'm not going to go into the catalysts because from a Risk/Reward side the upside math demands a small investment.
My personal opinion is that there are a minimum of 12Billion BOE recoverable and that makes continued accumulation a no brainer in terms of the share price. That's an opinion and I have no idea how much freaking recverable BOE there is. It's not completely arbitrary and I can't support it scientifically.
I'm going to postulate that we are rational buyers of the shares. (Yes I'm laughing too) Regardless, I see this as a completely rational 25-45X play and they don't come along very often. In addition rising Oil Prices as well as the fact that the Oil Industry and OPEC+ financial interests are currently alligned as well as the West's desire to stop Belt, Road & Shackles could eventually put Nambibia on the World's Center Stage.
If this resource is legit, becoming more legit every single day.
(Remember this is a speculative play) So while it is speculative it's Risk Reward makes it completely rational to increase the amount of $$$ invested because I'd say 25-45X of the Market Capitalization of this stock is still forward looking and if the resource is there it's going to get ridiculous. Recaf can Issue More Shares at a significantly higher price and start to develop the basin. JV or Both. I suspect that they will do both and that we will be dilluted one more time at a much higher share price. Or the JV may be enough to feed the company. Make no mistake this basin needs to be developed quickly for the benefit of all.