RE:RE:RE:Madrigal https://surfingnash.com/s2-e30-the-global-liver-institute-us-nash-action-plan-what-it-is-and-how-we-all-can-help-support-it/
This has a short insight into Becky Taub's history told by herself (it starts at about 9mins). She has a strong CV as you might expect which ends as a research group leader in Roche. Then she has the gumption to spin out of Roche with two of their assets to step up MDGL, presumably with the full support of Roche. Yes they have good clinical data now but to me it's that sort start and a little bit of X-factor that help to get companies good early valuations. I like Paul and Christian a lot, I think they have what it takes to make these programs a success but they aren't quite that top tier, maybe success at thtx propels them there. I hadn't heard the history of Taub or MDGL before I thought it was a nice insight.
Going back to today's MDGL news you can almost hear them pleading the case for non-intervention tools, anything but biopsy. The regulators don't look like they are budging any time soon but when that comes that could breath new life into NASH. Beyond just the risk and inconvenience to patients I think a lot see biopsy as a major source of uncertainty in trials.
SPCEO1 wrote: It was positive interim data on the side-trial, not the main one, so I don't think a big reaction to that was anticipated. Still, it shows how dead the NASH stocks are right now. It has come a long way since the day ICPT rose 500% in a single day when they announced their first positve NASH data. Unending drug failures will do that to a sector.
Even with that, TH still is getting zero value for NASH in my view, which seems pretty ridiculous. In the current nastier NASH environment for valuations, AKRO and IVA are still getting some pretty hefty valuations. Even with a significant disount, TH should be twice where it is right now if it got some credit for NASH. I earlier thought that might be the easiest route to a fairer valuation for TH but my confidence has been shaken in the market's willingness to pay attention to any new NASH news in the short term. If nothing else, MDGL's news was good news and maybe that lifts NASH investor spirits a little bit.
The next known time TH will talk is with the release of Q2 results. Maybe they will say something positive about cancer or NASH then. Of course, a finalized NASH protocol could come before then. My best guess is the quarterly results will come in the second week of July this year as every week gives them additional cancer data that they might want to incoporate in some way into their quarterly comments.
WIth regard to the always imprecise Bloomberg forecast of Egrifta and Trogarzo sales for Q2, it looks like the two drugs sales rose very marginally over Q1 levels - maybe 3-4%. But these Bloomberg numbers have been very unreliabel in the past.
qwerty22 wrote: Pretty stark to see the reaction in MDGLs stock since the NGM fail. It's gone from $130 to $100 since the day of NGMs announcement. And this news doesn't seem to be doing much positive either. I'm not sure right now is the best time to make your big announcement onto the scene.