RE:RE:Lumber futures under $500 for july nowanother poster answered your question on futures and c and h pretty much. I don't think there's a ton of upside here with futures now in the 500's, I see maybe possibly getting back to 2.50 ish but there is also downside risk if it's held too long,, all these forestry stocks are commodity stocks and you have to play the cycles, they are trading stocks not rip stocks, you really don't want to be holding thru the down cycles. I plan on selling the rest of mine soon after the next q results (hoping for some kind of a bump in s/p but the market knows this q will be a 1 hit wonder for all these stocks. a lot of the big money has moved on from the sector.
I would disagree with dadsaid2's comments on buybacks not working, 1st off all forward earnings will be at least a touch higher after buybacks with less shares o/s this is a nice ongoing benefit, 2nd these buybacks are also helping support the s/p, wef in particular would be lower than it is without them.
the balance sheets are pristine and they need to stay that way to survive the next downcycle, maybe a small divy increase can happen BUT the last thing these guys want to do is to have to cut it again down the road, forestry companies don't know much more than we do as far what will happen in the future. that's why I like the idea of a special divy (to also force some shorts to cover or pay it). so imho the best use of the extra cash is the continued buybacks and after that a special divy. the current 2% divy isn't too bad and keeps them as a divy stock.
cheers ferret