RE:RE:RE:$20,000 / ton Cu? Maybe Sombrero could stumble. Of corse it's possible.
But here's why I don't think that will happen.
Consider that when Auryn was sliced up, the banks only valued Tier One and Sombrero at US$45m each, roughly half of what they valued Fury at. Yet most Auryn investors believed the real value was in the 2 Peruvian names, most notably, Sombrero.
So it should have been obvious that post-split, many would immediately ditch Fury. That's why it initially stumbled. Following this you then had gold juniors market start to stall, at a time when Fury's development business model relied on a continuing strengthening market - so the stumble worsened, culminating in a change of CEO and a refocus back to pure discovery. That was a knock to credibility for Ivan and team.
So after an initially successful debut, TSLV soon stumbled too - really for no other reason than contagion. Fury had badly scuffed the shine off Ivan, and so TSLV dropped because the two were intimately linked in investors minds.
Now to Sombrero....
1) We know from his decisive action with Timmins and Clark that IB is willing to do whatever it takes, and speedily. And we can be sure he won't repeat any of the same mistakes.
2) The price of copper is 60% higher than at Auryn split, and consensus is it'll continue its upward trajectory well into next year.
3) The Las Bambas analogue story of Sombrero potentially makes Curibaya look like small beer in comparison. This thing is an absolute monster.
4) Permitting is where the holdup is, because copper mines are much bigger and more invasive than gold or silver, and the local community will be wary from the problems seen at nearby Las Bambas. (Lots of news coverage on this). But our guys have been on the front foot all the while and are doing the right things. And now there is a new community leader, so negotiations have had to start over. But the local community need this as much as we do. So make no mistake; it will happen.
5) And to help that along, the guys know some of the new senior government people.
6) And to top all this, we now have a 2nd project, Takana. We haven't heard a lot about this yet, but seemingly it's another really big swing. This gives us, the investors, optionality. And optionality means that Sombrero Resources (or whatever is the new name) can list as soon as permitting comes through for either project.
7) And crucially, optionality takes the heat off having to start drilling Sombrero soon, which improves Ivan and team's bargaining position with the local community.
So, I think we'll have to be even more patient yet, but it'll be an upward stampede not a stumble when it launches.