RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:$300 oil and OBEIt should be $20/share right now.
What you are really predicting is how long it will take for invester perception to change.
The global warming/carbon is bad story is everywhere on TV, internet, facebook etc. eg, I reposted a news story on fb a few days ago about the antartic having just experienced its coldest winter ever recorded - factual, and mainstream science media story - and fb overlayed a post which read - Click here to see how your local temperatures have increased. Thats straight out of a ministry of propaganda play book. Time always tells the truth, and the truth will come out, but it likely will be resisted by the minority pushing the global warming/bad carbon story.
Thats a bit like trying to predict how greedy and fearful investors are.
I suspect they are just as greedy and just as fearful as ever.
This is why I'm focused on the dividend. A dividend being paid by a tobacco company, an arms manufacturer, or an oil company is just as valuable as a dividend paid by costco. All that matters is how its expected to grow in the future.
I also suspect the herd is bigger now, and when it moves, it tends to move further and faster than in the past.
We are witnessing the first signs of a carbon based energy crisis on prices. It may have a lumpy start - but it looks like its started.
The high tech and clean energy sectors comsume a lot of energy, and many operate on thin margins. As energy prices increase (significantly), lets see how popular these companies remain. Bitcoin for example is near a Trillion dollar market value - yet its worthless without the blockchain computer calculations that make it work - what happens when more Countries start to ban sale of energy to bitcoin miners to try to protect their real economies and citizens..................thats a lot of money that may be looking for a new home. How popular will Telsa vehicles be when electricity is far more expensive? What will that do to the Tesla share price (currently trading at a PE over 100!!!). When the money starts to come out, where will it go?