CommonCentsforDollars wrote: Nobody knows if SAFE banking were to be passed whether or not that would allow them to uplist. I personally don't see SAFE as a big catalyst unless it were to include the ability to uplist to the main boards. TSX isn't going to allow an uplist for MSO's until the Nasdaq allows it. The ability for MSO's to uplist I see as the biggest possible catalyst for
both MSO's and LP's as the day MSO's can uplist is the same day LP's can operate in USA.
Benjamin Smith wrote an article about this earlier this year. The below excerpt is from his article.
While the benefits of more accessible banking access for cannabis operators and record expungement for those disproportionately affected or unjustly convicted are obvious, the pressing question for cannabis investors is more acute. They want to know whether the passage of SAFE Banking would finally allow U.S. multi-state operators (MSOs) listed on Canadian exchanges to be eligible to list on major exchanges stateside. In other words, does SAFE Banking give MSOs safe passage to uplist on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or NASDAQ?
The ability to access a deep pool of rank & file and institutional investment is a big deal, as veterans of the Great Canadian cannabis bull run (circa Q2-Q3 2018) can attest. Along with the reformation of IRS Tax Code 280E—which precludes cannabis companies from making certain federal tax deductions or credits available to most businesses—the ability to uplist is perhaps the single biggest catalyst that could impact MSO share prices in a positive way.
However, there is significant skepticism as to whether SAFE Banking will ultimately mean safe passage. Among the primary arguments against: cannabis would remain illegal at the federal level; a fact that will take many months to remedy. While we don’t have a definitive answer to this complex question, we present the expert’s viewpoints on this issue, given what they know today.
It’s our view, and we’re very active in Washington, that it will be very difficult to get full legalization of cannabis this year but we do think it may happen over the next 2-3 years. And certainly we’ll get SAFE Banking, which will allow, hopefully, U.S. companies that are operating in U.S. markets to list in the United States.
Boris Jordan, Curaleaf Holdings Execitive Chairman (February 11, 2021)
Full article below that includes other Cannabis CEO comments on the topic.
https://thedalesreport.com/cannabis/would-safe-banking-allow-msos-to-uplist-onto-major-u-s-exchanges-the-experts-weigh-in/
cheers
momo
skyplt wrote: My understanding was SAFE would allow LPs the opportunity to buy into MSOs as they would be federally legal. BTW, your insights are appreciated. We are all in this for the same reason and any shared info is worthwhile. Kindest Regards
hevin wrote: Skpilot: I'm sure I'm not the guy you want to answer the question but I do have a strong opinion about this. First I don't think the more act has any chance of passing the US till *itch McConnell dies. However I think the safe act will easily pass because of a number of reasons that you can Google. That being said when the safe act passes that'll uplift the whole cannabis sector until anyone intelligent realizes that it only will help the US msos and the US cannabis sector. But there should be a brief jump in the Canadian cannabis companies although the safe act really has no bearing upon them at all in the short run. Hopefully that helps until momo joda gets back to you...
skyplt wrote: It's raining outside so I am lingering. I have respect for your insights, so will ask for you to dream in technicolour (Canadian spelling of colour) for a moment. If not for anything else, but just to make me feel good going into the weekend.
Let's say for some unexplained reason SAFE actually slips through on the defense spending bill. That would be a black swan event I think.
Would this incite a short covering event in the USA, and if so, what impact would it have on the share price rise? 10, 20, 30...percent?
Just spitballing.
skyplt wrote: Thank you for this insight momo. Indeed, I was focused on TSX but as you rightly suggest, USA numbers are more relevant.
I do not believe this is Tilray specific. My suspician (and please correct me if I am mistaken) is this is sector wide and based upon an underlying bet that USA will not get SAFE or MORE through in a timely manner.
Cheers.
CommonCentsforDollars wrote: Nope
. It is a full on short attack dude. You think like a Canadian and I don't mean that disrespectfully as I am Canadian. The reality is on the TSX side you are correct and the majority of the short position has been covered.
Thank you to the Shorty Canadians that have covered.
The American blood hound Shorts haven't covered !!! 38.89 Million shares need to get covered. That is a TONNE of shares that they
need to change hands on. Shake someone out and cover. A huge amount of Covering /= Buying that needs to come into the fold to close off that giant short position.
TLRY Nasdaq ( 38.96M shares short last month - basically unchanged )
| Shares Short (Oct 15, 2021) 4 | 38.89M |
TLRY TSX ( down significantly from the 7.38Million shares last month )
| Shares Short (Oct 15, 2021) 4 | 765.07k |
eom
momo
skyplt wrote: I am in alignment with all your points, except the 'short attack' one.
I do not believe shorts are behind this stagant price. We are still trading above the 12.35CDN low for some time now. I would tend to think any short who had negotiated a price of 13.50CDN or higher would have taken their profit rather than pay interest on borrowed shares while we linger in the 12.70 to 13CDN range.
In my view, the entire sector has fallen out of favour with retail investors and now these LPs are going to have to show they are a viable entity while we wait for the USA to sort themselves. I remain invested in Tilray as their numbers are okay. Not stellar, but okay. I sure would like to see their market share in Canada rise. I am also in alignment with the various inititiaves the CEO has taken, but like most, think his compensation was unreasonable and somewhat tone deaf to the share price of late.
Bottom line...we all have to make our own decisions on whether to buy, hold, or sell. My sell orders are in the low 20s. I am hopeful these will fill within the next 6 to 12 months. Those sell orders used to be set in the low 30s, but these last six months have taken the wind out of my sails on that hope.
CaneIsAbel wrote: What's hurting us today is not the fundamentals of the company. Remember we just inked another deal in Europe. Sure it's only a population of one million but never the less the implications are Tilray is a trusted brand in the European Union a potential billion dollar market short term. Chuck shumer saying he will turn down the safe banking act unless it's included in a more comprehensive legalization package really gave the shirts the ammunition that congress was never going to act on anything. The stalling of federal legalization has played itself out very extensively especially on Tilray where as a global company and growth prospects shouldn't be as effected. Never the less we are lumped in with all of cannabis. Irwin Simons bonus packages were to retain his services until the end of 2022. They won't be recurring! We have far more synergies that will be realized and we're gaining market share in Canada. We are hitting all the right notes the bearish trend is from an orchestrated short attack that won't last much longer on my opinion