Good Natured Products Inc V.GDNP.H

Catalysts for the stock ....

[FreddieMac]

It's been interesting to watch all of the things suggested here that were going to move the stock price, but which either failed to materialize or once they happened failed to move the stock.  And I'm not including Doggy's litany of predictions in any of those. 

My evolving view is that many of the things people are pointing at (Q3 financial report for example) are already generally priced-in, as people can do the math based on past quarters, plus their stated organic growth, plus the guidance they have given for the additive impact of acquisitions and new contracts.   

So the real question becomes: what has the market not yet priced in, either fully or at all ? 

A few thigns come to mind:

1.   Premature profitability.  This is possible but not likely, but the sort of thing that would surprise to the upside for the stock.

2.   A transformative acquisition.  The company has a good amount of cash on their balance sheet and they are skilled financial engineers, so a significant acquisition could vault the revenue (and EBITDA) to a much higher level, without any additional dilution.  That could be material.

3.   Some transformative big customer wins.  So this is in the organic growth category and an example is the $13 million contract with the US food company mentioned a while ago.  I say "some transformative big customer wins" because the effect of the single $13 million contract was minimal, so I would expect they need to put up a few of these to show the trendline and materially higher revenue results.

One final note:  we've all been watching higher oil prices and this is a cost negative for GDNP's legacy competition of petroleum-based packaging.   It's easier to switch to GDNP when the oil-based products are themselves not getting any cheaper becuase their input costs are rising with the price of oil.