Tradeahead on Novo's value
@Tradeahead There are two ways we can value NOVOs assets, the full valuation estimate, as shown below from Oct 25, at 1,2 BILLION estimated.
OR the PESSIMISTS edition, which is the net assets - of which you will find 340M in the accounts net of all liabilities, NFG market value currently worth 110M is NOT included yet, you need to add it in on your own, so on that basis alone you have the first 450M. in net assets.
Now accounting being accounting, is does not list the economic value of projects ref. the PEAs 319M, it lists instead land at cost, so we do need to be cognizant of the PEA developed with a value of 319M and make an adjustment accordingly. From this 319M we subtract the original cost basis of land. Having no exact figure for BC/NLP land vs. other NVO holdings, we can simply subtract everything to be really conservative and low-balling it (319M less cost basis of all land assets 197) = 122M which adds into the valuation as this is a tradeable asset, it is just not recorded at its asset value due to accounting done on cost basis. (we knowingly understate the true value here, because the land costs truly associated with BC and NLP are much smaller, this is done on purpose to be conservative, anyway a 50% haircut of the PEAs value in this manner, puts us on very solid ground).
That puts us at 572M. And yet it still understates the actual net assets. Why????
When NVO started buying gold tenements in the Pilbara a while back (like Karratha, Egina), it was before many of the recent gold producers who have since descended upon the Pilbara, with success (think De Grey and many others). Subsequently, the assessed value of prospective gold fields in the Pilbara has risen a good deal, as demand has increased vs. supply. This is a fact. Anecdotally, owners of Pilbara tenements are currently receiving inquiries about their land from interested parties who want to buy. It is difficult to quantify exactly what the price increase is, but it is certain that prices are currently higher than when the tenements were purchased, and this difference, not listed in the accounts, should be added to NVOs asset value too, as an adjustment.
Thus we are above 600M in net assets. That is BTW 2,46C per share.
There is simply NO RATIONAL BASIS for NVO trading where it is trading currently.