RE:RE:RE:RE:Same problem for all and HexoTouran77 wrote: Rotaluceps wrote: Touran77 wrote: Rotaluceps wrote: No, Hexo will not be bankrupted short term. Of course it could long term. They need revenue. I often talked about the biggest problem for them all. They all have the same problem. I am not even talking about profit, that is needed to run a company and pay its debt or the expansion.
It was Canopy now with poor revenue now ACB. Where will they take their revenue? Some will have to be banrkupted, the ones with no cash.
- Aurora Cannabis (NASDAQ:ACB) has lost ~3.2% in the post-market after the company reported another decline in quarterly revenue. (All financials are mentioned in Canadian dollars).
- During the first quarter of fiscal 2022, total cannabis net revenue dropped ~11% to $60.1M as consumer cannabis net revenue fell ~44% YoY to ~$19.1M. The company attributed the weakness in the consumer segment to a COVID-led decline in demand from Canada.
Last time we heard about Redecan numbers, they had an increase of 168% from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021.
Will the increase continue? with prerolls gaining attention, I am expecting a small increase at LEAST.
Hexo last quarter was 39M. Remove 6M from Zena and we are at 33M.
Basically Q4 was equal to Q2. They are back on track after only 1 Earnings miss in sales. They will probably continue from where they were before and increase by 2-3M a quarter now.
I'm expecting this for Q1, I think it is pretty conservative, but would like to hear what is your prediction:
Hexo 33M
Zena 10M (now that they have 3 months in)
Redecan 20M (only 2 months)
48N 2M (only 2 months).
Total of 65M.
Tonto
You missed the point completely. These revenues come with debt. Integrating companies cost a lot of money which is meaningless comparing about the big problem. Redecan on its own didn't do any miracle but it was a lot better managed than the public ones. There was no free money coming from investors.
Then where the revenue will come from? Btw good for your call on the small increase of revenue coming from the pre rolls. Although there was a small decrease in the 4 provinces and you know it, the increase will be just this, small increase. If there was a decrease it would by low, so in fact, it is irrelevant to save Hexo. Redecan is also suffering the same problem of too many companies for the market. There are others pre roll company. It is so simplistic to understand. From there, I play the game.
The population will not double?
For the few new stores that will open, the revenue will be divided between the so many companies.
Where will come the revenue?
One question, how many pre roll companies are there in Canada?
I just ask for a friend. :p You will also learn more about the competition.
Btw, before your clan jump on me with idiotic scenarios. I don't stay stastic. I am all covered and covered my last short because of the insider buying. It was obvious the price would go up. I took my lost. I just act accordingly to the situation. The generous options are in the money, CEO.CA .
I think the price could hold near this range, though going down slowly is quite possible. So, I am lurking at Curaleaf and ACB. No way I am shorting Hexo now.
You talked about revenues, so I did.
Hexo is already back to what they were before the bad Q3 earnings, don't you think this is impressing? In 3 months, they fixed their 10M decrease from one quarter to another.
Being number 1 in Canada will be important when USA opens their borders, as simple as people will want to try the best products sold in Canada.
I also think they will be the First big LP to be profitable. Acquisitions have costs but are one time costs versus the synergies which will be ongoing savings.
We can disagree and I am okay with that, I would just like to know how much sales you expect for next quarter. Thanks in advance.
Tonto
To chime in on the product component of this chat. You can do this on your own as in I visit a few dispensaries website to see stock levels. One in particular sold today:
3 Redecan Black Cherry 14g (was 4 now 1)
1 Redecan Lical Diesel 14G (only 1 was in stock)
1 King pack Wapp (was 4 now 3)
10+ redecan wrapped and redee (they show 10 max so you do not know their full inventory level) They have no more
1 Redecan wappa Q (only 1 now gone)
I do not write this down, I merely look and remember a few of them to try and gauge sales at a few locations. You can find these products virtually everywhere. Just not in the second most populous province in Canada: QC - That is where we will see the biggest boost to our figures in the future.
Redecan Redees continue to be the top ranked pre-roll in the market - HEXO implied Q3 miss was due to lack of product (primarily hash) being produced. That is one of if not HEXOs top product. 48N is deemed to have better (I agree but Original Stash is half the price) but very few real ol school hash out there. HEXO is proper and it sells. But back to Redecan getting entry into QC will enable HEXO to continue to increase sales as long as the other channels maintain - See HEXO Q2 vs slight Q4 increase. Blips will happen. BTW the increased size formula .4g vs .35g is superior and it should help the #1 preroll product continue to be the #1 preroll product.
If these other companies are missing primarily in the lower cost segments (Original Stash - some Redecan - 48N trailblazer) who is gaining those sales? It is not all small boutique more expensive craft that is for sure. Covid is real, a lot of broke people but cannabis is a vice that will be bought....