RE:RE:RE:RE:The reality... Why I think it is cheap:
Cash flow, free cash flow and cash flow growth over the next 12 months - these are what I think makes it cheap. It is trading at less than 1 X next year's cash flow rounding up : $1.40 x 90 million shares =126 million.
On free cash flow - metrics drop but there is probably some torq coming from recent wells that were back to type curve and its on a higher production base for gravy. This is the area that is just turning around. Decent gas prices, great liquids pricing and good oil prices combined with low hedging should continue to improve the balance sheet. Covid is obviously still a wildcard here.
Their core area is a gas driven reservoir so their wells drop the oil cut quickly and over time basically turn into gas wells. Consequently they are much more profitable with an active drilling program. With decent oil prices they can grow cash flow very, very quickly.
Rounding up $1.40 times 90 million shares = market cap of 126 million. I think they will cash flow 140 million or more in 2022 and have strong exit production numbers leading to enormous free cash growth in 2023. Depending on prices I would not be surprised if they exceed 200 million in cash flow in 2023. That would make them obscenely cheap and cause a multiple expansion at the same time that debt is dropping so they get rerated for that.
We should now see debt dropping by 6 - 10 million per quarter and accelerating as the year progresses.
They need to show a bit of drilling/production consistency to get a better multiple but even if they don't - current prices and average drilling results mean a cash flow wall is coming. The massive 14 well pad might make numbers choppy quarter to quarter but it will underpin results for the whole year.
with respect to debt - the market vastly underestimates how much keeping their ARO under control has kept the banks off their back. After the Redwater decision banks just don't want the extra liability. Now you see news releases like Gear this week saying they are abandoning 10 X the wells they are drilling this year: that explains their credit drama for the last two years. YGR is up to date with ARO.
They are growing out of the debt issue maybe 3-6 months later than expected but it looks to be getting there.