Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

Alternate Symbol(s): ATHOF

Energy Oil & Gas E&P

Athabasca Oil Corporation (AOC) is a Canadian energy company with a focused strategy on the development of thermal and light oil assets. AOC’s segments include Light Oil and Thermal Oil. The Thermal Oil segment includes the Company’s assets, liabilities and operating results for the exploration, development and production of bitumen from sand and carbonate rock formations located in the Athabasca region of Northern Alberta. It also consists of two operating oil sands steam assisted gravity drainage projects and a resource base of exploration areas in the Athabasca region of northeastern Alberta. The Light Oil segment includes its assets, liabilities and operating results for the exploration, development and production of light crude oil and medium crude oil, tight oil and conventional natural gas. Its Light Oil segment consists exclusively of the Duvernay in the Greater Kaybob area with about 155,000 gross acres across Kaybob West, Kaybob North, Kaybob East and Two Creeks.

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Athabasca Oil Corp > Share buybacks

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Comment by Renofundon Dec 30, 2021 4:14pm

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Post# 34272073

RE:RE:RE:Share buybacks

Maxmoe wrote: I paid 11 end of October 2020. It's doubled to 22,44,88 and I expect at least another double. Bashers gonna bash, I've heard it all the way up. Penny flippers, day traders, bash and buy guys will be back. Nobody will short now, they've been burned. The risk I see to another double is an opportunistic buyout. Friendly or not, this company can be bought at well under $2. Lend me the money, I'd buy it all. That's a big reason mgmt wont buyback stock or use the big cash hoard to pay off debt. It makes it easier to buy them with a hostile bid. A buyer that doesn't care about ESG nutbars or lenders (like all our big banks in Canada) can scoop these assets for a fraction of what it would cost to replicate or what has been invested, at valuations much lower than other energy assets. Mgmt is also dragging their feet on reversing the huge reserve write offs that will create a huge increase in book value and a huge one time reported earnings for the same reason. Fear of a hostile bid. Definition of a hostile bid is ANY bid, regardless of price, that results in them being out of a job without a huge golden parachute. For now, management is aligned with shareholders interest because they won't sell. I would expand your comment about the "fools in Toronto " far beyond that little island of ESG deniers. Add in most of Europe, BC, Quebec, and even large swaths of New York and the rest of the USA. How about the idiots that sold 20% of the company at 18 cents a year ago? They should be fired. Energy producers, and oil sands in particular may never be "hot" but the coming oil shortage will make them tolerable or at least "ok", So good luck to all in the new year.

Renofund wrote:

Rational43 wrote: An oilsands company can be printing money, obliterating debt and adding net cash to the balance sheet, and it doesn't matter, if the fools in Toronto don't want to pay attention. The stock price can stay lower longer than anyone would think.

That's why aggressive share buybacks are the answer with surplus cash.

Share buybacks take advantage of market apathy, to buyback proven reserves, production, earnings and cash flow at a discount to market value with zero integration risk.

The two scenarios have exactly the same increase in value per share:

1. Increase production 33%
2. Buyback 25% of shares

In both cases the CFPS, EPS, and NAVPS increase for holders by 33%. No Capex is required, and no additional operating costs associated with the increased "production".

Athabasca could easily hold production flat and buyback 25% of shares next year, while still repaying debt.

I think some folks forget that ATH was .17 at one point over the past 52 weeks. Looking at roughly a 700% return. Many other names up multiples of 100%s. Names will stall here and there. Flows into energy names have been strong and will continue. Perspective.