Firecracker Q3 total cost firecracker, I will recalculate the Q3-21 total cost for you.
Q3-21 production: 82.4M pounds of zinc production, 66.6M pounds sold. (15.8M unsold)
Q3-21 average zinc price = $1.36
Original calculation:
Profit = $5.8M
Profit per pound = $5.8M/66.6M = $.09 per pound. Breakeven $1.27.
Firecracker adjusted calculation:
Profit = $5.8M + (15.8M unsold x $1.38 x 66% estimated for taxes and treatment) = $20M
Profit per pound = $20M/82.4M = $.24 per pound. Breakeven $1.12.
Difference = $.15
A reduction in total cost of $.15 from my original Q3-21 calculation is good, but the total cost for the 3 previous quarters were still $1.28 or higher. That average total cost for the last 4 quarters is still $1.25. This is unacceptable. With 2021 treatment cost, the company should have been profitable at $1.10 zinc. Bone headed management has driven costs through the roof.
On the positive side, if the breakeven cost of $1.12 holds in Q4, profit should be $1.53 - $1.12 = $.41 per pound. With Perkoa and Rosh Pinah producing 60.6M pounds, the profit should be around 60.6 x $.41 = $25M. That does not account for the unsold production in Q3, which could add another $14M.
To stay on the conservative side, I expect Q4 profits around $25M, which is the same as your estimate.
Please let me know if you disagree with any of these numbers.