RE:RE:30% annual production growth! are your new calculations based on these numbers below from the release?:
Additionally, production for the fourth quarter consisted of approximately 35% condensate, 10% NGLs, and 55% natural gas.
i ask because not sure if you missed this part later in the release:
Our corporate condensate mix is anticipated to gradually revert to the historical average of approximately 30% as flush production from our recent Pipestone pads abates and new pads come onstream at both Wapiti and Pipestone South.
If this second statement does not affect your new numbers, great. Just curious, because $315m FCF to $430m FCF is a massive jump. I will take it, but have you double and triple checked these numbers? thanks in advance.
Regardless, out of the ballpark quarter!
Oldnagger wrote: Looks like NVA will be beating their old cash flow projections for 2022 of $25.25 per bfoe as the additional condensate and ngl's should raise the netback to about $30 So cash flow for 2022 will be optimistically 30 X 68 kbpd x 363 = 740 mm $
Take off 310 million for capex we get 430 mm$ fcf (above previous estimates of 315 mm$)
If we figure that the market place gives us a value of $ 60 k per boe added ,then extra production of 8 kbpd is 540 mm $
So for 2022 we are looking at (430 +540) / 227 = $ 4.27 per share returns for 2022.
SO I am expecting very healthy returns this year, no matter if I look at it from an asset value basis as I calculated earlier or on a FCF + growth basis as I have clalculated here . It is hard to get much more precision from me, but the direction is definetly up and at a very quick pace !!