CommonCentsforDollars wrote: Hope all is well Sky. Happy New Year to you and your wife! You want a fact, budfox sold at $10 calling for $6 last December and Aphria shot up to $39 and Tilray $67.
People posted what they sold the very day they sold, but those become "fake posts". When you point out where he is incorrect there is just childish deflection with the endless name calling and more story telling. It is similar to communicating with a 4 year old.
Should I and everyone else sold absolutely everything when she peaked. For sure!! Did I hold a good portion that I should have sold, unfortunately yes.
That 0.838 valuation comparison was the holdback for many to do the FULL unload. This is the beauty of hindsight, knowing what moves should have been made. Nobody on this board played the short squeeze
perfectly. Nobody. That includes budfox that sold BEFORE it rocketed. Anyone can call down every day of their life. Broken clocks are correct twice a day.
As you pointed out, all the cannabis charts are pretty much the same. The heaviest Short positions by far in this Sector are TLRY and CGC. A tonne needs to be covered. Tilray market cap is 4 Billion USD and roughly 600 Million dollars worth of Shorty needs to be covered. A 600 million open short position is peanuts on a company like TSLA with a gigantic market cap. A 600 Million Dollar open short position on a market cap of 4 Billion is VERY SIGNIFICANT. Anyone that doesn't understand that is a foolish drunken sailer.
cheers
momo
skyplt wrote: I browse this site once or twice a week as, unfortunately, I now own more Tilray than I should. Ironically, I sold some ENB and WCP in late December to buy more shares of Tilray at 9.10CDN in an attempt to dollar cost average. I believed, and still believe, Tilray under 10 is a good buy, but seeing 8CDN on Jan 7 was a bit of a blow.
Regarding Budd and Common: I have followed Aphria since Privateer days and see grains of truth in both of your narratives, and some interpretation to suit your specfic thesis. A bit of advice guys...your sparring would be much more interesting if you avoided the personal slams. I am learning a lot from the debate, but wince at the name calling. It is possible to be on opposite sides of a debate but still be respectful. In many ways some of the information being presented is just like many in the press suggesting Tilray bought out Aphria where the truth is Aphria actually bought Tilray but kept the name. Any fact can be twisted to support one's bias.
Budd, though your price predictions have been fairly accurate (I truly wish I sold in November when it was above 16, my DCA prior to my 9.10CDN buy in December was around 15, it is now 14CDN) what I do not see you accounting for is That every LP has virtually the same 1 year chart. Does each have their unique reasons? It is the one question that lingers in the back of my mind...how much of Tilray's price decline has been due to macro forces (like SAFE and MORE apparently stalling) like the rest of the LPs, and how much attributable to internal forces like insider selling. If this price decline was Tilray specific (like it was Aphria specific during the Hindenburg days) I would subscribe to your argument. But this time around we do not see Canopy achieving new highs while Aphria tries to prove they have an address in Jamaica. All the LPs had a miserable year.
My view (and so far it has cost me a bundle) is any sort of catalyst will be in the form of M&A activity. Though Germany and Europe may play a role, watching the politics in the USA gives me little hope of much change on the government front. I see some of these LPs on life support (primarily HEXO) and will either go bankrupt or be taken over. I am not sure whether there is much appetite for dilution.
When I look to the last three years I cannot believe some of the mistakes I made. For example, I distinctly recall seeing WCP at one dollar (remember when a barrel of oil was trading at MINUS 10 dollars) and thinking I should sell some of my APHA at 6CDN to pick up on that. I did for for some, but not as much as I should. WCP is closing in on 9CDN and Tilray lingers in the 8s. Wow. I sold a lot of my wife's APHA at 15CDN (missed the Feb spike) and bought ENB at 40CDN. ENB is now sitting at 52CDN and she has got a nice dividend payment every three months.
The bottomline question for me is whether I think Tilray is going below 5USD (as you suggest Budd) or to 20CDN (where my sell orders are, down from an optimistic 30CDN). The truth is, I have no idea. Fortunately none of this is held on margin (I had a lot of APH on margin when Hindenburg broke and I darn near lost everything) so I have the "luxury" of holding. I am neither buying or selling. I truly have no idea from one day to the next whether we are going to finish green or red. Yesterday was a fine example...when I checked in during the AM it was around 8.40CDN and drifting lower...I got busy (with work) and did not look again until after the close and saw 9.60CDN, one penny below the open. That type of price movement (on no news) confounds me. As an aside, though it seems like a red herring, I truly hope there is some truth to CBD having some anti Covid capacity if taken orally. Now that would drive the USA into legalization in a big way as well as bring big pharma in. Alas, one can dream.
So, thanks to Budd and Common for your debates. It's difficult to know which facts are facts...but that is not specific to just you two, every site I go to (CBC, CNN, CNBC, FOX, Globe and Mail) has a different version of the "truth." All the best...Sky.